skininthegame

Biden doesn’t drop out shares getting attractive, market is way too confident imo

my hunch is the average polymarket user is a bit more risk-on and a bit more right-biased. so things like kamala % nominee or biden % dropping out are overpriced in the short term but probably still the leading likelihood options.

Yeah agreed, although I’m also skeptical of this “markets are closer to the truth” meme going around

Polymarket is highly biased towards the more fun outcome. It’s more social  than hard core rationalist.