In a sense, this is peak "degrowth". People having very enjoyable and productive lives while using very few physical resources.

In a sense, this is peak "degrowth". People having very enjoyable and productive lives while using very few physical resources.

https://twitter.com/haig98/status/1753839916948009316

The Great Filter theory, specifically what is called the Upper Income Trap -- once a civilization reaches a certain standard of living, approximately that of present day upper-middle-class Westerners, it stops reproducing and then dies out.

Almost a solution to the Fermi Paradox, except it’s the Virtual Reality Trap

Almost a solution to the Fermi Paradox, except it’s the Virtual Reality Trap

https://warpcast.com/pmarca/0x9422843d

Skeptical optimist, prediction market enjoyer

Both are unlikely in practice imo, because they make an N-of-N assumption.

If even one culture can keep fertility rates high while others go low, it will end up dominating population-wise.

If even one culture can continue to focus on the physical world while others go virtual, it will end up dominating militarily.

On the former, it is striking how fertility rates are crashing globally across very different cultures -- America, Europe, Japan, Korea, China.

On the latter, we may be entering an era where technology + money matter more for military supremacy than men + materiel.

... the one where you're weaker is the one where there is more marginal value in improving. Hence, if everyone goes super digital, there will be a big advantage to whoever puts a few more points into physical.

Agree on both!

But would be interesting to see what (1) looks like 100 years from now.

As for (2), also agree, but I think it's multiplicative: you need physical hardware, and you need digital tech to make the physical hardware do what it needs to do. And (ab)' = b'a + a'b, so...