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Gambid

@gambid

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Corollary to this: looking at the returns to scaling LLMs, the rise of AGI will drop the value of human work to near 0. A world with 90+% of humans jobless and desperate, and the inevitable stimulus in the form of UBI, is a powder keg for rampant online gambling
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Gambid
@gambid
We live in the golden age of trading Assets are going to keep getting repriced with every new technological advancement Increasing volatility and things to speculate on as we approach a singularity https://x.com/openai/status/1772311389857571157?s=46&t=488Ld1Y4tp1dj46AKfmrtA
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@vitalik.eth has some very unique ideas in his recent post about LLM agents playing long-tail events and bootstrapping liquidity, intuitively feels like something that could be a Bittensor subnet https://warpcast.com/~/channel/bittensor for those interested in exploring this h/t @ai @nick
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Very interesting set of ideas from @ai about projects that would fit well in the bittensor ecosystem https://x.com/ai/status/1753520157144858768
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This is a good framework to think about something like a bittensor Open source AI needed an incentive flywheel for mindshare and compute, a crypto element was inevitable The rest is up to momentum and network effects
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Recasting in here since it’s more related Fun fact: Prediction markets for politics date back further than most people think, with well organized betting markets operating between 1868 and 1940 During the 1916 election the total betting pool was $165m, a number that dwarfed the actual campaign spending that year
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@gambid
Fun fact: Prediction markets for politics date back further than most people think, with well organized betting markets operating between 1868 and 1940 During the 1916 election the total betting pool was $165m, a number that dwarfed the actual campaign spending that year
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“The farther back you look, the farther ahead you can see” Churchill would’ve killed it trading cryptographic currencies
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A conundrum I hear often is “I know it’s hard to beat eth longterm but I want to hold stables bc I think I can outperform” Solution: deposit eth/wbtc into aave and borrow stables against it when you want to put on a trade *particularly good if you time this with fresh cycles
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one of the simplest edges in the market is to be on the other side of price insensitive sellers having capital around lets you harvest liquidity premiums during fat tails '5x per year there's free money' yours to take
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Gambid
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whoever came up with the bell curve meme deserves a noble prize in psychology out of all the memes I’ve come across these last two years it’s the one I think about the most
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Gambid
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“countertrade yourself” vs. “follow your intuition” how do you square these two trading adages? one way is borrowing a model from good ol’ Danny Kahneman system 1 intuition: your fast chimp brain - fade this system 2 intuition: your slow trained subconscious - follow this
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unironically great time to be alive late enough for most creature comforts to be solved, early enough for most big questions to be a complete fucking mystery
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Gambid
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given the performance of newer models like LLaMA and Poe in addition to bing/chatgpt, it's not clear who the winners will be but an obvious loser is goog and their dominance over search
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Gambid
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“Money doesn’t bring happiness” is mostly psyops money may or may not directly bring happiness but it does set your life’s difficulty setting
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Gambid
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something interesting John von Neumann once said about poker, esp for newer players the point of bluffing is not occasionally winning a high bid with a bad hand, but rather to encourage your opponent to bet with a mid range hand when you have a good hand
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Less trading, more positioning
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In your opinion, has farcaster reached critical mass?
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If Microsoft rebrands Bing + ChatGPT as a soft reboot for clippy we are truly on the path to the paperclip maximzer
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