Peter Ferguson
@peterferguson.eth
Been experimenting with prediction markets over the past few weeks after being nerd sniped by @davewhite Distribution markets let you bet on ANY value and win within a range of your choice Try it out: https://www.onit.fun/m/0xd5ccab05c8247f11d4889766dffd9f67f1f6f856
23 replies
22 recasts
140 reactions
Peter Ferguson
@peterferguson.eth
TLDR on how it works: - Choose any value to bet on - Choose a confidence level for the bet - If the market resolves in your range share the pot with other winners
1 reply
0 recast
15 reactions
Peter Ferguson
@peterferguson.eth
Choose your prediction relative to the community median
3 replies
0 recast
7 reactions
Peter Ferguson
@peterferguson.eth
Your prediction and confidence gives determines your distribution This is then discretised into a set of buckets of shares When the market solves you win if your bucket contains the outcome
1 reply
1 recast
7 reactions
KMac🍌 ⏩
@kmacb.eth
Some quick thoughts after using on mobile for all of 2 mins - tighter feedback loops may help learn & improve ux faster. eg tomorrow vs this quarter result - people may struggle with choosing a confidence level. Consider 10/50/90 or other symmetric parameters of you must - love the ux slider on sigma mu sliders but meh Was expecting something different that may get to the same place: people guess the mean & get paid out based on how close they are to it. all the answers make the distribution. Reward people that consistently get closest. So few people think in shapes that this could have trouble finding some mass appeal. Not sure if that’s your goal. Even the macro ‘experts’ submitting to BlueChip (is it still called that) lick their fingers & submit averages.
1 reply
1 recast
1 reaction
