Been experimenting with prediction markets over the past few weeks after being nerd sniped by @davewhite 

Distribution markets let you bet on ANY value and win within a range of your choice

Try it out:

Been experimenting with prediction markets over the past few weeks after being nerd sniped by @davewhite 

Distribution markets let you bet on ANY value and win within a range of your choice

Try it out:

https://www.onit.fun/m/0xd5ccab05c8247f11d4889766dffd9f67f1f6f856

Making investing together better https://onit.chat | Variant Founder Fellow | Cambridge Alum | Formerly Ireland's #3 powerlifter (74kg)

Choose your prediction relative to the community median

Set your confidence

Your shares are normally distributed based around your prediction using this value

Your prediction and confidence gives determines your distribution 

This is then discretised into a set of buckets of shares

When the market solves you win if your bucket contains the outcome

All people who held shares in the winning bucket will split the ENTIRE pot

Some tips: 

Early = Good 

A buckets price increases as a more people are buy

High confidence = Win more

Lower confidence will spread your money across more buckets

Controversial = Good

If your guess right and no one else gets it you win EVERYTHING

TLDR on how it works:

- Choose any value to bet on

- Choose a confidence level for the bet
 
- If the market resolves in your range share the pot with other winners

Thanks!

The slider and distos are a combination of victory charts, framer motion and some custom svg stuff

very cool

how did you guys make the sliding distribution curve component?

Site with live stats would be cool

If available would definitely like to check that out

We are basing it want is reported here

dreaming higher ↑ /basedstudio ⋅ exploring new frontiers in crypto, ai, states

Site with live stats would be cool

If available would definitely like to check that out

We are basing it want is reported here

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND

that's a big number to cut lol, what's the real number right now? remember seeing a site with live stats

Bitcoin, /appreciation channel host, /stolenfromtwitte channel host

FID: 2211

Not possible from the frame at the minute we are working on this part 

But for you can message me questions you have in mind and we can create the market

Nice!!

How can I make a prediction category?

Stay Curious // iixii // Lazer Technologies // Prev: CoinDesk, Roc Nation // based

It works well for any market where the outcome is not discrete.

So think sport bet spreads, earnings reports, days until questions etc

All other prediction markets have chosen ranges for you and your upside is relative to others betting in that range. 

This way you choose your range and bet against the whole market

What type of markets or topics do you think this is best suited for?

This is so cool to see!! Absolutely fantastic work 🙏

I helped give Dave feedback on his paper and we were wondering who was going to build out distribution markets, the frame is a cherry on top

Ex-VC. I like making bread (literally and figuratively) 

https://x.com/electricfutures/status/1891898336208105676

Curious how this market resolves bc you can’t really take doges word for it

It's Monday. @DOGE is the laziest, most overpaid bunch of incompetent, unelected bureaucrats we've ever seen.

After several delays, @DOGE has finally posted its purported savings. Why did it take so long to create a simple webpage with a 1000-row table? Who knows! Let's dig in.

Headline number: $55B saved. They list the savings per nixed contract. This should be easy to verify then.

🧵

Momentum Chaser

Does that include the tax breaks for billionaires that will raise the deficit cause if it does I am taking the under.

Really nice UI

Maybe Im missing something, but the transaction my wallet gets is ~35% less that what I select in the frame? e.x. 0.0066 Eth versus 0.01 Eth