I don't understand how prediction markets actually predict the future if all it's doing is charting the emotional reaction to the most immediate stimuli.

Seems pretty fit for predicting irrational human behavior, esp on short timelines.

Seems esp unfit for predicting things outside human control.

I don't understand how prediction markets actually predict the future if all it's doing is charting the emotional reaction to the most immediate stimuli.

Seems pretty fit for predicting irrational human behavior, esp on short timelines.

Seems esp unfit for predicting things outside human control.

https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1820478604272189591?t=d9w95X_b-qnaopDV2vnEfg&s=19

Founder, designer, & product guy at /basepaint and /eigenlayer

Their best use case on this front is information rather than prediction thus far. These markets will know something the second it’s known rather than when it’s reported