skininthegame

I can’t quite put my finger on why yet, but I have a very bad feeling about prediction markets.

Understand this sentiment, gambling can be very bad when taken to the extreme.

But when people with knowledge contribute by risking money in a market, more truth is revealed. This is great for humanity. The much darker alternative is a world where a few companies control perception with no accountability.

Perhaps in that same vein it could also help spread misinformation in the face of mass adoption? 

If PMs are indeed the ‘killer app’, and if early on the zeitgeist is that ‘bets in prediction markets are more likely to be true’

People/groups with more money than morals could fund helpful untruths

People and groups with more money than morals are funding countless untruths now at no cost.

If they throw their money at untruths in markets there is a cost. They lose their money.

Also in these markets at least participants could have a verifiable history of stances or actions they’ve taken.