Content
@
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
MTH
@mthch
Is it realistic to calculate with an APY of 5% for portfolio mixed with ETH, USD and BTC?
2 replies
0 recast
1 reaction
Monteluna
@monteluna
With the mix of ETH and BTC I'm not sure how you would hedge downside and still hit 5%. I assume you mean 5% with no downside risk, but you want upside exposure to ETH, but then the question becomes how much exposure do you want.
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Monteluna
@monteluna
To do some math here and give you an actual strategy, if you have $100K you can deposit in Pendle and the USDe pools are at 7.5% locked until Sept. Assuming that stays constant and you can roll again, you would need to buy $97.6K (also assumes no slippage) to guarantee a 5% return until at least September. The issue here is you cannot guarantee you can roll a fixed yield contract after Sept. Its likely but not guaranteed, so you won't hit 5% if yields crash (likely) and bitcoin crashes. Now you have $2.4K to buy options on BTC and ETH (Derive or whatever platform, but buy European options). Probably the best exposure is skipping ETH entirely and buying a December contract for Bitcoin at $115K. I think this strategy would make sense but you have a bit of a floating rate since there aren't any Pendle markets open past September on dollar markets you should want. My only opinion is why even do this. Its probably more lucrative to allow for some downside losses because the upside right now is probably high.
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Monteluna
@monteluna
Also a note, the option could be worthless. The strategy of guaranteeing 5% is so rigid, which means your options strategy would be limited. If crypto crashes then starts recovering around November, its likely your option would be worthless or you'd lose some money there. You'd definitely have to be on top of it and the moment its in the money take some profits.
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
MTH
@mthch
I am a simple guy. I like simple solutions. Let’s imagine: - Cashing out 750k more or less at the cycle top to USD by DCA out. - waiting for the bottom, keeping the cash in USD and get some APY on it. - around the bottom, start to DCA into BTC and ETH. - Use products like StakeDao, @maxapy , Kelp, superoeth for getting the APY of 5% on average.
1 reply
1 recast
1 reaction
Monteluna
@monteluna
Ok then so you don't want 5%. You are saying "on average" using products without *fixed* APY. They're all volatile and some are just AMMs with IL risk, so have a range of possible future APYs, so no actual professional can tell you you're going to get 5%. That's just vibe investing. I'm telling you the best way to get almost exactly 5% with probably less than 2% downside risk doing the math and using fixed contracts with little to no volatility. Fixed contract lending and European options where your downside is known actually matters. If you're just going to vibe invest take the money, stick it in Berachain on the Honey/BERA pool, and take more downside risk but earn a higher APY in the 50%.
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
