I like to gamble plenty but @polymarket is not a polster, it’s a betting market.

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Just not true, betting markets are often wildly off and open to being manipulated.
538 is an aggregation of all the reputable polls and has been historically very close to the outcome

It is a prediction tool though. 

Polls are also not as accurate depending on the demographic polled and things like people simply lying about who they will vote for out of embarrassment or peer pressure of people within earshot of the call by the pollster.

A lot of times those betting pools are a good indicator.