politics

I like to gamble plenty but @polymarket is not a polster, it’s a betting market.

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It is a prediction tool though. 

Polls are also not as accurate depending on the demographic polled and things like people simply lying about who they will vote for out of embarrassment or peer pressure of people within earshot of the call by the pollster.

A lot of times those betting pools are a good indicator.

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538 was famously wrong about the the 2016 election, though, mainly for the reasons I specified. People just lied about whether they would vote for Trump and many polls were not talking to enough demographics. 

Polling itself is far from perfect so even an aggregation is not necessary going to be predictive, especially with such close margins. Gotta take all of it with a grain of salt. But it’s all we really have if you aren’t taking other predictive tools into account.

I am just glad that Harris is keeping the “we are the underdog” mentality and campaigning like crazy even if it looks like she is in the lead.

Just not true, betting markets are often wildly off and open to being manipulated.
538 is an aggregation of all the reputable polls and has been historically very close to the outcome