anybody got good insights on implications of current happenings in the bond market

A few possibilities:

1) Capital flight from USD as trading partners diversify. The US exports dollars for goods. The receiving country recycles some of those dollars into holding US treasuries. If there is a move away from trade, these natural buyers of treasuries fall off.

2) Institutions selling to satisfy margin calls on equities and shore up balance sheet cash

3) China could be selling their UST holdings to buffer against tariffs. Some argue they are going to try to push longer end US rates higher on the upcoming US refi cliff. A lot of 4d/5d chess theorists argued Trump admin initially launched this trade war to force Fed to cut rates. This makes that play more difficult.

It's nuts that people are surprised by tariffs driving interest rates higher:

The US imports more than it exports.

Stuff comes in, dollars go out.

At the end of the day, our trading partners end up with a bunch of USD laying around.

These dollars need to go somewhere, and a big portion of them go back into the US in the form of treasuries — they're super liquid, considered very safe, and are an instrument of exchange basically anywhere on earth. If you have to park spare capital somewhere, treasuries are a good place to do it.

The US issues new debt often and this constant flow of dollars coming back into the country creates a floor of demand for those new debt issuances.

When demand is high, the US can get away with offering lower interest rates.

Adding tariffs unwinds this. ↓↓

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1909816230107623803

Oh hey, for more on how 1 works: https://warpcast.com/michael/0x11e941f4

(2 and 3 are also good possibilities, probably a mix of all three)

onchain: IRL NFT Art with /bright-moments | off chain: baking or consuming sourdough