Huge breaking news out of Iran that the head of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who was visiting to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new president has apparently been assassinated in Tehran along with his bodyguard.

The obvious suspect in the attack is Israel and Iranian authorities have already confirmed that it occurred this morning in an explosion that struck Haniyeh’s residence. This is hugely embarrassing for Iranian officials to have a visiting VIP killed in their capital by a foreign intelligence agency.

Israeli security officials looked incompetent after Oct 7 but I think it is a misconception. They assigned their more competent personnel to the Iran and Hezbollah beat and decided to outsource Hamas to reservists and tech-based security controls. 

While they will respond I do not expect a major Iranian retaliation that leads to war as they do not have escalation dominance.

Huge breaking news out of Iran that the head of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who was visiting to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new president has apparently been assassinated in Tehran along with his bodyguard.

The obvious suspect in the attack is Israel and Iranian authorities have already confirmed that it occurred this morning in an explosion that struck Haniyeh’s residence. This is hugely embarrassing for Iranian officials to have a visiting VIP killed in their capital by a foreign intelligence agency.

Israeli security officials looked incompetent after Oct 7 but I think it is a misconception. They assigned their more competent personnel to the Iran and Hezbollah beat and decided to outsource Hamas to reservists and tech-based security controls. 

While they will respond I do not expect a major Iranian retaliation that leads to war as they do not have escalation dominance.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/30/middleeast/hamas-political-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed-intl-hnk/index.html

Writer, podcaster, and commentator on foreign affairs and politics. Runs /dropglobalnews

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What do you mean by “escalation dominance“?

Pragmatism (Security) at OP Labs.
Prev: ConsenSys & Coinbase.

Attribs: Friendly, curious, introverted, mid-witted.
Chans: /eth-security /maurelian /stoicism




They can retaliate at a higher level in a fight