brypto

Geopolitics

Writer, podcaster, and commentator on foreign affairs and politics. Loves history, languages, technology, and philosophy. I’m also on X at Mazmhussain.twitter

Our beloved betting markets did not do great on this one either:

I forget who casted it, but someone here made the great point that political markets don’t actually “predict” outcomes very well

They mostly just track other people’s sentiment until the end and then whiplash to converge with the outcome (mostly just arbitrage at that point)

That’s probably why liquidity is so poor

I'm kind of curious what would happen if you removed the "no" option—i.e. you can only bet "yes" on something you think will happen.

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This is the alt account of Sister Hazel. Writings at https://powerlaw.systems. Building https://testnet.uvio.network. 

yeah that specific poll was a bad example. what do you think about cases where there are multiple choices, such as “who will win the us pres election?” it seems like it would be simpler to just have people vote for who they think would win.

You are suggesting that people can only buy your coin, but they can never sell it. 

If you only have one side to vote for you essentially have no market and nobody can win anything and then you have no incentive and the whole thing just falls apart.

The incentive in prediction markets is that one side pays the other.