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Sheldon Trotman
@sheldon
Came across this interesting chart...it shows that the US is a net debtor to basically everyone in the world (…and pension holders) by a large magnitude. Primarily happened post WW2 but with the Fed now raising interest rates (and “higher for longer”), it'll increase the interest payments on the debt for the US.
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Sheldon Trotman
@sheldon
This means one of 2 things needs to happen, either: 1) inflation needs to run higher than the Fed interest rates. In other words the US dollar needs to be devaluing faster so the total amount of debt (aka “nominal value”) can be paid back with the same number of bills but which are worth less.
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Sheldon Trotman
@sheldon
2) the US defaults on its debt or austerity which can’t happen without civil unrest (see what happened in the Great Dression in 1929)
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m_j_r
@m-j-r.eth
I think we need to lean into increasing joules and FLOPs per capita. if sectors near the bottom of Maslow's can reach equilibrium (e.g. housing supply is drastically accelerated), then inflation might be tolerable. though, I think w/ the capture of sectors like healthcare & education, 2) is more likely.
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Sheldon Trotman
@sheldon
My take is that running the austerity playbook won’t get politicians re-elected so more likely to see (1) with money printing which is creeping and not as explicitly felt from one day to the next especially being the world reserve currency status
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