I don't understand how prediction markets actually predict the future if all it's doing is charting the emotional reaction to the most immediate stimuli.

Seems pretty fit for predicting irrational human behavior, esp on short timelines.

Seems esp unfit for predicting things outside human control.

I don't understand how prediction markets actually predict the future if all it's doing is charting the emotional reaction to the most immediate stimuli.

Seems pretty fit for predicting irrational human behavior, esp on short timelines.

Seems esp unfit for predicting things outside human control.

https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1820478604272189591?t=d9w95X_b-qnaopDV2vnEfg&s=19

Founder, designer, & product guy pushing pixels at niftyapes and /basepaint

Prediction markets are more about human emotions than actual predictions.

We should call them emotional markets then.

Founder, designer, & product guy at /basepaint and /eigenlayer

We should call them emotional markets then.

https://warpcast.com/allotomaletterde/0x3241314d

doing numbers podcast

Very interesting indeed.
On the last /doingnumbers episode they were talking about inside information and how this the place to capitalise on it.