my biggest issue with prediction markets rn is that they aren't actually decentralized

intersubjective mechanism design @ poidh.xyz - come chill /poidh + follow @poidhbot

I'm not convinced they can be. The incentive to lie to get the money is just a bit less then the bet size and that makes things really complicated. 

same thinking here, imo they mainly survive based off the regulatory arbitrage of betting markets being illegal in the US

you get rid of betting market regulations in the US and a centralized competitor probably wins

would love your opinion on the poidh open bounty design mechanism tho, trying to solve a similar problem of "how do you confirm something happened IRL" but without the oracles:

I make lights blink and play with crypto (cryptography and cryptocurrency) at /neynar. they/them or he/him

same thinking here, imo they mainly survive based off the regulatory arbitrage of betting markets being illegal in the US

you get rid of betting market regulations in the US and a centralized competitor probably wins

would love your opinion on the poidh open bounty design mechanism tho, trying to solve a similar problem of "how do you confirm something happened IRL" but without the oracles: https://paragraph.xyz/@poidh/poidh-open-multiplayer-bounties-explained

so the thinking here is that most of the time people are going to trust the bounty creator to make the right decision

which I think aligns with how human governance usually works, we give our money to people we think are going to get stuff done and generally trust them

I want people to have the option to veto if things go egregiously wrong, but I don't expect it to be used often which is why there's no minimum vote requirement

I would maybe have a minimum quorum required for the vote to pass. Check out curve's voting