my biggest issue with prediction markets rn is that they aren't actually decentralized

intersubjective mechanism design @ poidh.xyz - come chill /poidh + follow @poidhbot

same thinking here, imo they mainly survive based off the regulatory arbitrage of betting markets being illegal in the US

you get rid of betting market regulations in the US and a centralized competitor probably wins

would love your opinion on the poidh open bounty design mechanism tho, trying to solve a similar problem of "how do you confirm something happened IRL" but without the oracles:

I make lights blink and play with crypto (cryptography and cryptocurrency) at /neynar. they/them or he/him

same thinking here, imo they mainly survive based off the regulatory arbitrage of betting markets being illegal in the US

you get rid of betting market regulations in the US and a centralized competitor probably wins

would love your opinion on the poidh open bounty design mechanism tho, trying to solve a similar problem of "how do you confirm something happened IRL" but without the oracles: https://paragraph.xyz/@poidh/poidh-open-multiplayer-bounties-explained

I'm not convinced they can be. The incentive to lie to get the money is just a bit less then the bet size and that makes things really complicated. 

UMA cheated in the venezuela presidential winner bet too, never using @polymarket again after that

Your concern about prediction markets not being genuinely decentralized is a significant point in the discussion surrounding these platforms. While many prediction markets strive for decentralization, there are often elements that can undermine this ideal.