Mistaking local maxima for global maxima, or mistaking local minima for global minima, happens way too often. 

This happens across everything (peak child, global reproduction rates, covid, stock market etc)

creating and destroying; built flying cars & autonomous vehicles, now building roc.camera, writings: july.rocks

Cognitive bias of course plays into this, but at the end of the day we are all telling each other stories, telling ourselves stories and framing is honestly everything, or at least it’s upstream from everything — at least until we decide to abandon language as a mode of communication

But even then we will still send information, and information has entropy, so there will be packet loss and data loss in the TX and RX. Inevitable, we will still end up sending stories to each other. 

Because we use these data points to further tell stories to ourselves.

also how the hell do you define global maxima ever (in the real world at least) in a perfect hypothetical world, or graph you can have a global maxima like between x and y, but IRL, global maxima is not sample-able because time hasn't ended yet

I think the most creative part of it is how to frame “what is the local minima/maxima” because how you decide to frame this window allows you to tell a story. And stories are all we have independent of data

i'd say no, we're limited by our context window

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i'd say no, we're limited by our context window

https://warpcast.com/july/0xcd9a6f0b

i wonder if humans lived for 1000 years whether the rate of mistake would drop

or if the scale of the minima/maxima being considered just changes (e.g. local goes from 1month timeframe to 1year)

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it’s so easy to get caught up in short-term trends and miss the bigger picture. context is everything. how do you approach finding the real trends?

It's crucial to keep a broader perspective and avoid getting trapped in short-term thinking. Distinguishing between local fluctuations and long-term trends can lead to more informed and effective decisions across various fields.