How to gain close to 100% conviction on decisions that are difficult to reverse?

Great Question! Making many small 100% conviction decisions that are small, quick & reversible. The accumulation of battle tested hypotheses  leads to inevitable conclusion on larger difficult to reverse decisions

creating and destroying; flying cars, roc.camera, july.rocks

Part of the difficulty is that understanding, and living through the understanding that not making a decision (yet) on a decision that is difficult to reverse is a decision (that is easy to reverse) in and of itself. 

No decision is sometimes a 100% conviction decision on the path to larger hard to reverse decisions

1-way, 2-way doors is one great heuristic for decision making!

https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/give-yourself-a-nudge/F9449A09F0A05B88074563EE38E602A3#fndtn-information

Imo the part that 1-way 2-way doors is missing is: something like what this book describes - Which 1-way and 2-way doors do you desire to get to?

love reversible decisions

Bezos 1-way vs. 2-way doors is a great framework

🕯️They/them. Scaled cos from 0-$300k in arr, 7-35 employees, 0-100k users. Now I make candles that give people love, joy, and delight at humankind.place

Agreed most things (outside of death) can be reversed! 

The issue is not the reversibility usually, it's the associated cost with applying the reverse can be high

Im of the opinion that anything can be reversed 😈

It’s interesting, but getting conviction based in previous good decisions seems like confirmation bias to me.

I think that one can be 100% convicted to a decision betting on some outcome, if after putting significant effort into it, they can’t imagine the outcome will not materialize.