How to gain close to 100% conviction on decisions that are difficult to reverse?

Great Question! Making many small 100% conviction decisions that are small, quick & reversible. The accumulation of battle tested hypotheses  leads to inevitable conclusion on larger difficult to reverse decisions

creating and destroying; flying cars, roc.camera, july.rocks

It’s interesting, but getting conviction based in previous good decisions seems like confirmation bias to me.

I think that one can be 100% convicted to a decision betting on some outcome, if after putting significant effort into it, they can’t imagine the outcome will not materialize.