jihad ↑ pfp
jihad ↑
@jihad
My hot take is that prediction markets are pure gambling – worse than memecoins – and I don't think normalizing them is good for society
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Roadu 🎩🦊 pfp
Roadu 🎩🦊
@roadu
gambling itself probably isn’t good for society either but we seem to be trending in that direction
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Goldy pfp
Goldy
@goldytalks
my take is that you are wrong
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Zinger ↑ pfp
Zinger ↑
@zinger
At least they have a defined ending and you know if you won or lost With memecoins you could “win” (choose a good coin) but then end up losing money because you didn’t exit at the right time
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jacob pfp
jacob
@jacob
what makes them pure gambling?
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Tr3ll pfp
Tr3ll
@tr3llooo
Thought this was obvious
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max 🎩🚂 pfp
max 🎩🚂
@baseddesigner.eth
It would still be better to have prediction markets over typical gambling betting sites existing today
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cyrus pfp
cyrus
@cyrus
for me it's less the gambling aspect which is ridiculously normalized (just watch the adverts during a football match) it's more how they reshape incentives in ways that can actually distort reality. pretty sure that isn't good for society
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Matt pfp
Matt
@mattlee
With insider trading built in
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osama pfp
osama
@osama
it's worse than fentanyl. wait a decade. but still baby drill and burn the house to the ground is the motto
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James McComish pfp
James McComish
@jamco.eth
In pure gambling (roulette, lottery tickets) the cost of buying in doesn't change, so those bets don't reflect the likelihood of an event. I'd say that's enough to mean your examples aren't pure gambling. With both prediction markets and memecoins the cost does change with popularity of the token bought. The difference with prediction markets is the incentive to buy and hold to resolution (as that is when you get max payout if correct), where as with memecoins dumping for profit at any point is a rational choice. Can argue wether most prediction markets are asking useful questions or not, but in general incentivising people to share their opinion has more potential upside than picking a number from a hat. Can you think of any prediction market you've seen/thought of that may be positive for society?
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Booth Templeton 🛢️ pfp
Booth Templeton 🛢️
@subcutaneous.eth
Bad take
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Joe Bae pfp
Joe Bae
@joebaeda
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Anniceris 🎩 pfp
Anniceris 🎩
@anniceris
I see value in them as a form of signal by people with skin in the game which has appeal over other sources which can be biased and co-opted. Useful for hedging too. Our everyday lives are full of prediction markets such as insurance, queues, working and general life navigation. These seem like a natural evolution of the human predilection to predict.
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million.base.eth pfp
million.base.eth
@wopr
spicy 🌶️
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Farin Jini pfp
Farin Jini
@thepostcrypt
True. Just because they are "onchain" doesn't make them different from online and local offline gambling schemes.
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GraceHollingsworthYield pfp
GraceHollingsworthYield
@gracehollingswor
Prediction markets are just gambling, harming society.
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