skininthegame

I can’t quite put my finger on why yet, but I have a very bad feeling about prediction markets.

seeker /native /believein /bedrock 🇵🇸

I’ll have to do some soul-searching but it probably boils down to “gambling bad”

i'm not sure, all markets are essentially prediction markets

like, farcaster og token is a prediction market on future success of farcaster

the one argument i could see though is it just feels very spiritually unsound that people are betting on certain real-world events

stock market is a prediction market with tangible value (i actually own shares)

even @jacob’s essay where he talks about minting nfts as prediction markets feels better to me because there are other possible intentions like supporting artists 

prediction markets like polymarket are pure gambling

agree it's zero sum which is prob one of the issues, other markets are not zero sum

imo it's conceptually cool that people bet based on conviction in an outcome, and when you put everyone's bets together it shows society's collective conviction in an outcome, which theoretically maps to the probability of that outcome