jayhan88
@jayhan88
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OpenAI $157b vs. Ethereum $280b valuation. Looking back five years from now, will Ethereum have been overvalued or undervalued?
For more context, OpenAI, valued at $157b, was founded in 2015 and now has 250 million weekly "organic" users who leverage its technology to boost productivity. Innovative use cases are emerging daily, positioning OpenAI as a potential disruptor to the near-monopoly of Google and Apple in the search engine and app store markets.
In contrast, Ethereum, with a market cap of $280b, launched its mainnet in 2015 and revolutionized blockchain through smart contracts and dApps. However, its user base is relatively limited, with much of its activity driven by speculation "yet". Ethereum now finds itself caught between Bitcoin, which serves as digital money, and Solana, which leads in tech-driven crypto innovations 0 reply
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The Flaws of Prediction and Why Polymarket Might Not Be a Reliable Indicator for Crypto Market Movement
Predictions often fail, particularly in financial markets. Why? Because making accurate predictions requires getting two critical variables right:
X: What will happen (event)
Y: How the market will react (market response)
The formula "If X, then Y" sounds simple, but even the most intelligent persons frequently struggle to get both variables right.
Currently, the U.S. election is seen as a significant factor influencing crypto market movements. The prevailing belief is that if Trump wins (X), it will be positive for crypto (Y). Conversely, if Harris wins (X), it could be negative for crypto (Y). Of note, crypto prices often correlate with the U.S. presidential odds on @polymarket , where less than 0.1% of the total American electorate wager on political outcomes. This small sample size makes Polymarket an unreliable predictor of events (X), and market reactions (Y) could also defy expectations (con't) 1 reply
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Big Tech Stock Crash, AI Bubble Theory, and Crypto Hopes
- Nasdaq & QQQ: Down by 3.6%, M7 stock crash (Alphabet -5.0%, Amazon -3.0%, Apple -2.9%, Meta -5.6%, Microsoft -3.6%, NVIDIA -6.8%, Tesla -12.3%)
- After Sequoia raised concerns about an AI bubble, fear of an AI Big Tech bubble emerged, coinciding with earnings season. https://sequoiacap.com/article/ais-600b-question/
- The core of the AI bubble theory is that while AI is the future, it is not immediately realizable. Current excessive CAPEX investments (e.g., NVIDIA chips) are not matched by high AI revenues
- Will the liquidity that was focused on AI now flow into crypto? If Trump announces at this week's Bitcoin conference that he plans to incorporate Bitcoin into the US reserve assets and gets elected, it's possible
- However, this scenario does not apply to most alts. Most altcoins have a lower risk/return profile compared to M7 stocks imo. This is also true for Ethereum. 0 reply
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