jayhan88
@jayhan88
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29 Followers
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The Flaws of Prediction and Why Polymarket Might Not Be a Reliable Indicator for Crypto Market Movement
Predictions often fail, particularly in financial markets. Why? Because making accurate predictions requires getting two critical variables right:
X: What will happen (event)
Y: How the market will react (market response)
The formula "If X, then Y" sounds simple, but even the most intelligent persons frequently struggle to get both variables right.
Currently, the U.S. election is seen as a significant factor influencing crypto market movements. The prevailing belief is that if Trump wins (X), it will be positive for crypto (Y). Conversely, if Harris wins (X), it could be negative for crypto (Y). Of note, crypto prices often correlate with the U.S. presidential odds on @polymarket , where less than 0.1% of the total American electorate wager on political outcomes. This small sample size makes Polymarket an unreliable predictor of events (X), and market reactions (Y) could also defy expectations (con't) 1 reply
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Big Tech Stock Crash, AI Bubble Theory, and Crypto Hopes
- Nasdaq & QQQ: Down by 3.6%, M7 stock crash (Alphabet -5.0%, Amazon -3.0%, Apple -2.9%, Meta -5.6%, Microsoft -3.6%, NVIDIA -6.8%, Tesla -12.3%)
- After Sequoia raised concerns about an AI bubble, fear of an AI Big Tech bubble emerged, coinciding with earnings season. https://sequoiacap.com/article/ais-600b-question/
- The core of the AI bubble theory is that while AI is the future, it is not immediately realizable. Current excessive CAPEX investments (e.g., NVIDIA chips) are not matched by high AI revenues
- Will the liquidity that was focused on AI now flow into crypto? If Trump announces at this week's Bitcoin conference that he plans to incorporate Bitcoin into the US reserve assets and gets elected, it's possible
- However, this scenario does not apply to most alts. Most altcoins have a lower risk/return profile compared to M7 stocks imo. This is also true for Ethereum. 0 reply
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2Q24 recap
- Despite a stablecoin mkt cap increase of 8% in 2Q24, BTC, ETH and alts (excluding stablecoins) price delinced by 15%, 8% and 18%, respectively.
- Meanwhile, the US stock market performed well, with Nvidia, the leading AI company, seeing its price soar by 38%.
- The DXY (US Dollar Index) experienced a slight increase, while gold prices remained nearly flat
Outlook
- The ETH ETF is set for approval in July, but its demand remains uncertain, with expectations that it will capture only 10-20% of the interest compared to Bitcoin ETFs
- Without demonstrating technological innovation, Ethereum, often considered a tech-focused crypto, might struggle to retain investor attention amid the strong interest in AI.
- Bitcoin may continue to solidify its position as digital gold, supported by favorable interest rate and macro environment.
- ALT SZN might focus more on memecoins rather than low float/high FDV VC coins with large unlocking schedules. 0 reply
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