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jayhan88

@jayhan88

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jayhan88
@jayhan88
OpenAI $157b vs. Ethereum $280b valuation. Looking back five years from now, will Ethereum have been overvalued or undervalued? For more context, OpenAI, valued at $157b, was founded in 2015 and now has 250 million weekly "organic" users who leverage its technology to boost productivity. Innovative use cases are emerging daily, positioning OpenAI as a potential disruptor to the near-monopoly of Google and Apple in the search engine and app store markets. In contrast, Ethereum, with a market cap of $280b, launched its mainnet in 2015 and revolutionized blockchain through smart contracts and dApps. However, its user base is relatively limited, with much of its activity driven by speculation "yet". Ethereum now finds itself caught between Bitcoin, which serves as digital money, and Solana, which leads in tech-driven crypto innovations
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@jayhan88
In this podcast, the panelists draw a comparison between Ethereum and the United States in terms of wealth and economic influence. While Ethereum has fewer users, those who participate in its ecosystem are often extremely wealthy, much like how a small percentage of the U.S. population controls a large share of global wealth. I think it's a brilliant metaphor, but if Ethereum continues on its current trajectory, there’s a risk it could become more like Europe—once prosperous, but now more of a historical relic—rather than United States. The U.S. rose to global economic dominance through capitalism, yet cuirrent Ethereum’s leadership sometimes feels more reminiscent of communism imo https://youtube.com/watch?v=DGXp_ise5Nc&t=1s
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jayhan88
@jayhan88
Clear chart, clear message
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jayhan88
@jayhan88
If a channel lacks original opinions and is mostly filled with forwarded contents and bot-generated audiences, how can it truly be considered a "KOL"?
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jayhan88
@jayhan88
Peter Thiel says "Internet was really big, Bitcoin was moderately big [...] passing the Turing Test is really big on the same scale as the internet" This highlights the mainstream perception that AI represents the next 10x opportunity, comparable to the impact of the internet, while crypto is viewed as "moderately" significant. This perspective explains why crypto has underperformed relative to the Nasdaq recently, and it may continue to do so unless we achieve groundbreaking, crypto-native innovations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klRb0_BAX9g
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@jayhan88
gm
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@jayhan88
The Flaws of Prediction and Why Polymarket Might Not Be a Reliable Indicator for Crypto Market Movement Predictions often fail, particularly in financial markets. Why? Because making accurate predictions requires getting two critical variables right: X: What will happen (event) Y: How the market will react (market response) The formula "If X, then Y" sounds simple, but even the most intelligent persons frequently struggle to get both variables right. Currently, the U.S. election is seen as a significant factor influencing crypto market movements. The prevailing belief is that if Trump wins (X), it will be positive for crypto (Y). Conversely, if Harris wins (X), it could be negative for crypto (Y). Of note, crypto prices often correlate with the U.S. presidential odds on @polymarket , where less than 0.1% of the total American electorate wager on political outcomes. This small sample size makes Polymarket an unreliable predictor of events (X), and market reactions (Y) could also defy expectations (con't)
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@jayhan88
Potential Risks That Could Have Severe Negative Impacts #1 Harris Wins with an Anti-Crypto Stance (Probability: 40-50%) #2 Collapse of Crypto-Native Market Players (Probability: 80-90%) #3 Economic Recession and Unfavorable Macro Conditions (Probability: 20-30%) #4 Heightened Geopolitical Risks and Conflicts (Probability: 20-30%) #5 NASDAQ & M7 Stocks Outperforming Crypto, Leading to Reduced Interest and Capital Inflow to Cryto (Probability: 70-80%) #6 Economic Crisis in China or Other Non-US Countries Triggering a Global Financial Crisis (Probability: 20-30%) What else are we missing? I still believe we are in the middle of a cycle. However, considering the risks mentioned above, it’s crucial to manage exposure carefully rather than going all-in on crypto or using excessive leverage. US growth stocks currently offer a better risk/reward profile compared to most alts imo
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@jayhan88
Big Tech Stock Crash, AI Bubble Theory, and Crypto Hopes - Nasdaq & QQQ: Down by 3.6%, M7 stock crash (Alphabet -5.0%, Amazon -3.0%, Apple -2.9%, Meta -5.6%, Microsoft -3.6%, NVIDIA -6.8%, Tesla -12.3%) - After Sequoia raised concerns about an AI bubble, fear of an AI Big Tech bubble emerged, coinciding with earnings season. https://sequoiacap.com/article/ais-600b-question/ - The core of the AI bubble theory is that while AI is the future, it is not immediately realizable. Current excessive CAPEX investments (e.g., NVIDIA chips) are not matched by high AI revenues - Will the liquidity that was focused on AI now flow into crypto? If Trump announces at this week's Bitcoin conference that he plans to incorporate Bitcoin into the US reserve assets and gets elected, it's possible - However, this scenario does not apply to most alts. Most altcoins have a lower risk/return profile compared to M7 stocks imo. This is also true for Ethereum.
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@jayhan88
The upcoming launch of the ETH ETF will shed light on the mainstream demand for the tech crypto Ethereum. Various institutions estimate the daily inflow for the ETH ETF to be around $50m, which is 25% of the Bitcoin ETF's daily inflow, assuming it stands at $200m The demand for the ETH ETF will serve as a barometer for mainstream perception of crypto. If it significantly exceeds expectations, we might witness an alt season. Otherwise, the crypto casino could remain stagnant, with most alts struggling to surpass their previous ATH imo #Ethereum #Ethereum ETF
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Biden's potential decline is shaking up political meme coins. I believe Obema could be a joker to fight back against Tremp "Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend." *Solana based political meme coins $TREMP Market Cap $47.7M, +5% daily price change $BODEN Market Cap $15.6M, Price -29% daily price change $KAMA Market Cap $13.3M, Price +61% daily price change $OBEMA Market Cap $5.9M, Price +108% daily price change $NEWSUM Market Cap $814K, Price +88% daily price change @polymarket https://t.co/lHykVIvzHs
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@jayhan88
It appears that JPM's CEO is joining Trump's bitcoin/crypto bandwagon You don't change Bitcoin, Bitcoin changes you https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/07/17/hes-changed-his-tune-trump-reveals-jpmorgan-ceos-sudden-bitcoin-and-crypto-flip-amid-huge-price-surge/
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@jayhan88
I observe that CT is in a state of euphoria amid Trump is becoming pro-Bitcoin (well done @bitcoinmagazine !) and has a higher chance of winning the U.S. election, with current @polymarket odds showing Trump at 63% versus Biden at 15%. However, it's important to consider the following points: - Less than 1% of American voters use Polymarket, so it is not a reliable indicator of the overall American electorate. - Despite Trump's lead in various polls, traditional polling data indicates that Biden (and the Democrats) still have solid support. Trump 42% / Biden 40% FiveThirtyEight Trump 42% / Biden 40% RealClearPolitics Trump 46% / Biden 43% Emerson College Polling Trump 50% / Biden 48% CBS News The election remains highly unpredictable, and price volatility in crypto and political memecoin is expected to rise in the coming months. Be sure to manage your bets and risks properly
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@jayhan88
German authorities and Mt. Gox creditors are indifferent to the current price imo. They don't attempt to time the market; instead, they prioritize selling quickly to convert their BTC holdings into fiat ASAP, much like we hastily sell "farmed tokens" to convert them into BTC, ETH, SOL, or stablecoins regardless of the price. Still, the market may revive to a bull phase once this overhang is resolved, hopefully by Q3 2024. In the meantime, take care of your mental health and enjoy the ride with sound risk management.
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@jayhan88
Crypto projects gearing up for TGE in 3Q24
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@jayhan88
things missing in this cycle, if it’s truly over (which seems unlikely imo), are quite peculiar: - ETH reaching its ATH following BTC’s ATH - ALT SZN where every coin surges - Billion-dollar fundraising by major VC funds - Absence of groundbreaking crypto-native innovations - Collapse of "too big to fail" market participants (CEXs, protocols, hedge funds, etc.)
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While screening for potential hidden gems with fully vested coins, I discovered these. I'm surprised that some old coins are still valued at over a billion dollars and ranked within the top 40 There's still a long way to go for repricing old coins🤦‍♂️
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On ETH ETF demand The ETH ETF is scheduled to launch within a week, and the market is closely watching its initial demand. According to a clip from @BanklessHQ , both @BitwiseInvest and @glxyresearch estimate that Ethereum ETFs will capture 30% of Bitcoin ETF net flow, while @Rewkang 's analysis sets 15% as the base case. https://youtube.com/watch?v=xaP5d1pmncY&t=2642s Bitcoin ETF flow reached $1.1 billion in the first 5 days, and the initial daily flow of ETH ETFs will determine market direction in July. Factors such as a lack of new crypto-native tech innovation & yield (staking), and the rise of Solana may suppress demand for ETH ETFs. However, robust basis trade could provide upside risks. I believe in Ethereum's long-term value and its ecosystem, but we need to be realistic. First 5days of ETH ETF flow scenarios - Bear (10%): $110m - Base (15%): $165m - Bull (30%): $330m I won't be surprised if organic demand for ETH ETFs stays below 10% of Bitcoin ETFs amid the ongoing AI bull market.
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@jayhan88
2Q24 recap - Despite a stablecoin mkt cap increase of 8% in 2Q24, BTC, ETH and alts (excluding stablecoins) price delinced by 15%, 8% and 18%, respectively. - Meanwhile, the US stock market performed well, with Nvidia, the leading AI company, seeing its price soar by 38%. - The DXY (US Dollar Index) experienced a slight increase, while gold prices remained nearly flat Outlook - The ETH ETF is set for approval in July, but its demand remains uncertain, with expectations that it will capture only 10-20% of the interest compared to Bitcoin ETFs - Without demonstrating technological innovation, Ethereum, often considered a tech-focused crypto, might struggle to retain investor attention amid the strong interest in AI. - Bitcoin may continue to solidify its position as digital gold, supported by favorable interest rate and macro environment. - ALT SZN might focus more on memecoins rather than low float/high FDV VC coins with large unlocking schedules.
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Mr. market rewards those who are patient
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