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jayhan88

@jayhan88

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@jayhan88
In this podcast, the panelists draw a comparison between Ethereum and the United States in terms of wealth and economic influence. While Ethereum has fewer users, those who participate in its ecosystem are often extremely wealthy, much like how a small percentage of the U.S. population controls a large share of global wealth. I think it's a brilliant metaphor, but if Ethereum continues on its current trajectory, there’s a risk it could become more like Europe—once prosperous, but now more of a historical relic—rather than United States. The U.S. rose to global economic dominance through capitalism, yet cuirrent Ethereum’s leadership sometimes feels more reminiscent of communism imo https://youtube.com/watch?v=DGXp_ise5Nc&t=1s
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@jayhan88
Clear chart, clear message
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If a channel lacks original opinions and is mostly filled with forwarded contents and bot-generated audiences, how can it truly be considered a "KOL"?
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Peter Thiel says "Internet was really big, Bitcoin was moderately big [...] passing the Turing Test is really big on the same scale as the internet" This highlights the mainstream perception that AI represents the next 10x opportunity, comparable to the impact of the internet, while crypto is viewed as "moderately" significant. This perspective explains why crypto has underperformed relative to the Nasdaq recently, and it may continue to do so unless we achieve groundbreaking, crypto-native innovations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klRb0_BAX9g
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gm
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😁 Good - Ethereum's ecosystem remains strong, capturing over 60% of DeFi TVL and 50% of stablecoin market cap - The only altcoin approved for a U.S. spot ETF - 7 out of the top 10 NFT projects by market cap are based on Ethereum. - The number of developers contributing to Ethereum is significantly higher compared to other chains. According to @electric , over 10,000 developers contribute to Ethereum and its L2s, compared to Solana's 2,856. - Efforts to popularize Ethereum include @coinbase @base @coinbasewallet, and USDC integrations.
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In this scenario, we don't know exactly what will happen or how many rate cuts may occur (X). Furthermore, even if rate cuts do happen, they won't necessarily lead to a risk-on environment or a crypto bull market (Y). The only certainty is that we don’t know, and making predictions is mostly a losing game. Avoid relying on well-known traders, investors, or KOLs who make predictions with absolute certainty. Instead, regularly reassess your own thesis with a healthy dose of skepticism. Big opportunities and risks lie in the future. Enjoy riding the waves🌊
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Consider the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The consensus was that (X) Hillary would win; and (Y) if not, a Trump presidency would cause market chaos and a stock market collapse. The reality? Both predictions were wrong. Trump won, and the stock market began to rally. Similarly, the upcoming U.S. presidential election could produce completely unexpected outcomes. We shouldn't reduce the analysis to a simple Trump-pro-crypto vs. Harris-anti-crypto narrative. What's more important is the potential for a recession and rate cuts imo. (con't)
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The Flaws of Prediction and Why Polymarket Might Not Be a Reliable Indicator for Crypto Market Movement Predictions often fail, particularly in financial markets. Why? Because making accurate predictions requires getting two critical variables right: X: What will happen (event) Y: How the market will react (market response) The formula "If X, then Y" sounds simple, but even the most intelligent persons frequently struggle to get both variables right. Currently, the U.S. election is seen as a significant factor influencing crypto market movements. The prevailing belief is that if Trump wins (X), it will be positive for crypto (Y). Conversely, if Harris wins (X), it could be negative for crypto (Y). Of note, crypto prices often correlate with the U.S. presidential odds on @polymarket , where less than 0.1% of the total American electorate wager on political outcomes. This small sample size makes Polymarket an unreliable predictor of events (X), and market reactions (Y) could also defy expectations (con't)
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Potential Risks That Could Have Severe Negative Impacts #1 Harris Wins with an Anti-Crypto Stance (Probability: 40-50%) #2 Collapse of Crypto-Native Market Players (Probability: 80-90%) #3 Economic Recession and Unfavorable Macro Conditions (Probability: 20-30%) #4 Heightened Geopolitical Risks and Conflicts (Probability: 20-30%) #5 NASDAQ & M7 Stocks Outperforming Crypto, Leading to Reduced Interest and Capital Inflow to Cryto (Probability: 70-80%) #6 Economic Crisis in China or Other Non-US Countries Triggering a Global Financial Crisis (Probability: 20-30%) What else are we missing? I still believe we are in the middle of a cycle. However, considering the risks mentioned above, it’s crucial to manage exposure carefully rather than going all-in on crypto or using excessive leverage. US growth stocks currently offer a better risk/reward profile compared to most alts imo
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Big Tech Stock Crash, AI Bubble Theory, and Crypto Hopes - Nasdaq & QQQ: Down by 3.6%, M7 stock crash (Alphabet -5.0%, Amazon -3.0%, Apple -2.9%, Meta -5.6%, Microsoft -3.6%, NVIDIA -6.8%, Tesla -12.3%) - After Sequoia raised concerns about an AI bubble, fear of an AI Big Tech bubble emerged, coinciding with earnings season. https://sequoiacap.com/article/ais-600b-question/ - The core of the AI bubble theory is that while AI is the future, it is not immediately realizable. Current excessive CAPEX investments (e.g., NVIDIA chips) are not matched by high AI revenues - Will the liquidity that was focused on AI now flow into crypto? If Trump announces at this week's Bitcoin conference that he plans to incorporate Bitcoin into the US reserve assets and gets elected, it's possible - However, this scenario does not apply to most alts. Most altcoins have a lower risk/return profile compared to M7 stocks imo. This is also true for Ethereum.
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The upcoming launch of the ETH ETF will shed light on the mainstream demand for the tech crypto Ethereum. Various institutions estimate the daily inflow for the ETH ETF to be around $50m, which is 25% of the Bitcoin ETF's daily inflow, assuming it stands at $200m The demand for the ETH ETF will serve as a barometer for mainstream perception of crypto. If it significantly exceeds expectations, we might witness an alt season. Otherwise, the crypto casino could remain stagnant, with most alts struggling to surpass their previous ATH imo #Ethereum #Ethereum ETF
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Biden's potential decline is shaking up political meme coins. I believe Obema could be a joker to fight back against Tremp "Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend." *Solana based political meme coins $TREMP Market Cap $47.7M, +5% daily price change $BODEN Market Cap $15.6M, Price -29% daily price change $KAMA Market Cap $13.3M, Price +61% daily price change $OBEMA Market Cap $5.9M, Price +108% daily price change $NEWSUM Market Cap $814K, Price +88% daily price change @polymarket https://t.co/lHykVIvzHs
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It appears that JPM's CEO is joining Trump's bitcoin/crypto bandwagon You don't change Bitcoin, Bitcoin changes you https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/07/17/hes-changed-his-tune-trump-reveals-jpmorgan-ceos-sudden-bitcoin-and-crypto-flip-amid-huge-price-surge/
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gm
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I observe that CT is in a state of euphoria amid Trump is becoming pro-Bitcoin (well done @bitcoinmagazine !) and has a higher chance of winning the U.S. election, with current @polymarket odds showing Trump at 63% versus Biden at 15%. However, it's important to consider the following points: - Less than 1% of American voters use Polymarket, so it is not a reliable indicator of the overall American electorate. - Despite Trump's lead in various polls, traditional polling data indicates that Biden (and the Democrats) still have solid support. Trump 42% / Biden 40% FiveThirtyEight Trump 42% / Biden 40% RealClearPolitics Trump 46% / Biden 43% Emerson College Polling Trump 50% / Biden 48% CBS News The election remains highly unpredictable, and price volatility in crypto and political memecoin is expected to rise in the coming months. Be sure to manage your bets and risks properly
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German authorities and Mt. Gox creditors are indifferent to the current price imo. They don't attempt to time the market; instead, they prioritize selling quickly to convert their BTC holdings into fiat ASAP, much like we hastily sell "farmed tokens" to convert them into BTC, ETH, SOL, or stablecoins regardless of the price. Still, the market may revive to a bull phase once this overhang is resolved, hopefully by Q3 2024. In the meantime, take care of your mental health and enjoy the ride with sound risk management.
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Crypto projects gearing up for TGE in 3Q24
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things missing in this cycle, if it’s truly over (which seems unlikely imo), are quite peculiar: - ETH reaching its ATH following BTC’s ATH - ALT SZN where every coin surges - Billion-dollar fundraising by major VC funds - Absence of groundbreaking crypto-native innovations - Collapse of "too big to fail" market participants (CEXs, protocols, hedge funds, etc.)
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$OBEMA $NEWSUM $KAMA!
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