jayhan88

@jayhan88

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31 Followers

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Brave new world. Anything could happen

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OpenAI $157b vs. Ethereum $280b valuation. Looking back five years from now, will Ethereum have been overvalued or undervalued? For more context, OpenAI, valued at $157b, was founded in 2015 and now has 250 million weekly "organic" users who leverage its technology to boost productivity. Innovative use cases are emerging daily, positioning OpenAI as a potential disruptor to the near-monopoly of Google and Apple in the search engine and app store markets. In contrast, Ethereum, with a market cap of $280b, launched its mainnet in 2015 and revolutionized blockchain through smart contracts and dApps. However, its user base is relatively limited, with much of its activity driven by speculation "yet". Ethereum now finds itself caught between Bitcoin, which serves as digital money, and Solana, which leads in tech-driven crypto innovations

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In this podcast, the panelists draw a comparison between Ethereum and the United States in terms of wealth and economic influence. While Ethereum has fewer users, those who participate in its ecosystem are often extremely wealthy, much like how a small percentage of the U.S. population controls a large share of global wealth. I think it's a brilliant metaphor, but if Ethereum continues on its current trajectory, there’s a risk it could become more like Europe—once prosperous, but now more of a historical relic—rather than United States. The U.S. rose to global economic dominance through capitalism, yet cuirrent Ethereum’s leadership sometimes feels more reminiscent of communism imo https://youtube.com/watch?v=DGXp_ise5Nc&t=1s

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Clear chart, clear message

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If a channel lacks original opinions and is mostly filled with forwarded contents and bot-generated audiences, how can it truly be considered a "KOL"?

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Peter Thiel says "Internet was really big, Bitcoin was moderately big [...] passing the Turing Test is really big on the same scale as the internet" This highlights the mainstream perception that AI represents the next 10x opportunity, comparable to the impact of the internet, while crypto is viewed as "moderately" significant. This perspective explains why crypto has underperformed relative to the Nasdaq recently, and it may continue to do so unless we achieve groundbreaking, crypto-native innovations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klRb0_BAX9g

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😁 Good - Ethereum's ecosystem remains strong, capturing over 60% of DeFi TVL and 50% of stablecoin market cap - The only altcoin approved for a U.S. spot ETF - 7 out of the top 10 NFT projects by market cap are based on Ethereum. - The number of developers contributing to Ethereum is significantly higher compared to other chains. According to @electric , over 10,000 developers contribute to Ethereum and its L2s, compared to Solana's 2,856. - Efforts to popularize Ethereum include @coinbase @base @coinbasewallet, and USDC integrations.

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In this scenario, we don't know exactly what will happen or how many rate cuts may occur (X). Furthermore, even if rate cuts do happen, they won't necessarily lead to a risk-on environment or a crypto bull market (Y). The only certainty is that we don’t know, and making predictions is mostly a losing game. Avoid relying on well-known traders, investors, or KOLs who make predictions with absolute certainty. Instead, regularly reassess your own thesis with a healthy dose of skepticism. Big opportunities and risks lie in the future. Enjoy riding the waves🌊

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Consider the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The consensus was that (X) Hillary would win; and (Y) if not, a Trump presidency would cause market chaos and a stock market collapse. The reality? Both predictions were wrong. Trump won, and the stock market began to rally. Similarly, the upcoming U.S. presidential election could produce completely unexpected outcomes. We shouldn't reduce the analysis to a simple Trump-pro-crypto vs. Harris-anti-crypto narrative. What's more important is the potential for a recession and rate cuts imo. (con't)

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The Flaws of Prediction and Why Polymarket Might Not Be a Reliable Indicator for Crypto Market Movement Predictions often fail, particularly in financial markets. Why? Because making accurate predictions requires getting two critical variables right: X: What will happen (event) Y: How the market will react (market response) The formula "If X, then Y" sounds simple, but even the most intelligent persons frequently struggle to get both variables right. Currently, the U.S. election is seen as a significant factor influencing crypto market movements. The prevailing belief is that if Trump wins (X), it will be positive for crypto (Y). Conversely, if Harris wins (X), it could be negative for crypto (Y). Of note, crypto prices often correlate with the U.S. presidential odds on @polymarket , where less than 0.1% of the total American electorate wager on political outcomes. This small sample size makes Polymarket an unreliable predictor of events (X), and market reactions (Y) could also defy expectations (con't)

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Potential Risks That Could Have Severe Negative Impacts #1 Harris Wins with an Anti-Crypto Stance (Probability: 40-50%) #2 Collapse of Crypto-Native Market Players (Probability: 80-90%) #3 Economic Recession and Unfavorable Macro Conditions (Probability: 20-30%) #4 Heightened Geopolitical Risks and Conflicts (Probability: 20-30%) #5 NASDAQ & M7 Stocks Outperforming Crypto, Leading to Reduced Interest and Capital Inflow to Cryto (Probability: 70-80%) #6 Economic Crisis in China or Other Non-US Countries Triggering a Global Financial Crisis (Probability: 20-30%) What else are we missing? I still believe we are in the middle of a cycle. However, considering the risks mentioned above, it’s crucial to manage exposure carefully rather than going all-in on crypto or using excessive leverage. US growth stocks currently offer a better risk/reward profile compared to most alts imo

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Big Tech Stock Crash, AI Bubble Theory, and Crypto Hopes - Nasdaq & QQQ: Down by 3.6%, M7 stock crash (Alphabet -5.0%, Amazon -3.0%, Apple -2.9%, Meta -5.6%, Microsoft -3.6%, NVIDIA -6.8%, Tesla -12.3%) - After Sequoia raised concerns about an AI bubble, fear of an AI Big Tech bubble emerged, coinciding with earnings season. https://sequoiacap.com/article/ais-600b-question/ - The core of the AI bubble theory is that while AI is the future, it is not immediately realizable. Current excessive CAPEX investments (e.g., NVIDIA chips) are not matched by high AI revenues - Will the liquidity that was focused on AI now flow into crypto? If Trump announces at this week's Bitcoin conference that he plans to incorporate Bitcoin into the US reserve assets and gets elected, it's possible - However, this scenario does not apply to most alts. Most altcoins have a lower risk/return profile compared to M7 stocks imo. This is also true for Ethereum.

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