Economics

editor https://lowercase.cards/ prev: everyname (acq. Q4 '23)

For work, I’ve had to closely watch the state of economy and how that relates to small business. I disagree with this sentiment, but I’ll sit on it and give it more thought

Stock market is down after Walmart reported earnings. Specifically on their lower outlook for this quarter. Quote from the CNBC article

“If Walmart is giving bad guidance, you should be paying attention to it,” said Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director at R.J. O’Brien and Associates. “Perhaps this is suggesting that the general consumer is tapped out.”

Still confirms to me that a mild recession is coming (or here already), but will have to see more economic data come in

Stock market is down after Walmart reported earnings. Specifically on their lower outlook for this quarter. Quote from the CNBC article

“If Walmart is giving bad guidance, you should be paying attention to it,” said Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director at R.J. O’Brien and Associates. “Perhaps this is suggesting that the general consumer is tapped out.”

Still confirms to me that a mild recession is coming (or here already), but will have to see more economic data come in
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

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We’re in for it if people are cutting back on dollar store m&m’s

If dollar general also misses, I’ll get concerned.

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I’d love it. This just one data point. I’ve been following since restaurant earnings last year were saying that the low end consumer isn’t really eating out either

Government job cuts and big tech layoffs are still relatively fresh and haven’t been priced in yet

In a recent Marketplace ep - i can grab it if you like -- i learned that 40% of consumer spend is driven by 20% of Americans. It masks a lot of pain. This suggests to me softness is coming to that top 20.

One point to consider - seems like their guidance has erred on side of caution and underpromised/overdelivered

That’s true, but that also means that you’re looking at the direction of the revision. Revising down is horrid, no change can often be bad, and upward revision is good (usually)

One point to consider - seems like their guidance has erred on side of caution and underpromised/overdelivered

https://sherwood.news/markets/why-walmarts-lackluster-guidance-may-not-be-that-scary/