creating and destroying; built flying cars & autonomous vehicles, now building /faust, more here: /july, web: july.rocks

What's a hypothesis we could test for, that would be true if your model of AI researchers is correct, and false if their p(doom) values actually are well-considered?

eg. one that comes to mind is: in your model, an individual researcher's stated p(doom) should be very volatile week by week. Is that true in practice?

/me reading Vitalik's cast, which I understand and agree with, then comparing the quality to my latest "Where's Hammy" cast. I think I need to work on my cast quality.

Husband, dad, dev • @dune.eth wizard • Ultimate Ⓜ️oxie Dashboard https://tinyurl.com/moxiedash • Ultimate Degen Tips FAQ https://tinyurl.com/degenfaq