s3unha on Warpcast

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Here's live-read for a Japanese book translated "Declaration of Localism - From Growth to Steady". https://t.ly/AHNLW H/t @vgr and his pandemic live reads where he live tweeted books as he was reading them. Cast threads UX is nowhere perfect and I'm hoping they become perfect over time.

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The author is a Japanese Philosopher, public thinker, educator, cultural critic named Tatsuru Uchida. The book is a collection of 10 essays / 10 ppl / 10 diff industries. Shared topic was population decline.

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When the book was published in 2017, JP was 10 years into discussing and putting forth solutions for population decline. Way ahead of the curve 😱 The preface is his overarching take on pop decline which he views as a civ prob that's not limited only to JP.

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For JP their pop is expected to drop from 127m to 60m, a 50% decrease over 80 years. He doesn't believe pop decline is a problem Govt or anyone can respond at scale once in motion. Pop decline is followed by shrinking mkt and existing biz models having to change or dying.

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At the time of writing, there was no national discussion around what form JP would end up with due to pop decline. I wonder what the influence of Covid is to pop decline and if he thinks any differently.

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On top of pop decline, he fears AI taking jobs. JP gets to choose their poison that they're first up to bat. He wasn't sure what industries would lose their job first but predicted manufacturing and services. If I replaced "pop decline" with "climate" the tone would sound more of less the same. Similar BIG prob.

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People predict pop declining society being prevalent around the world. Why aren't we speaking enough about this? Or are we but with diff words describing the same set of phenomena ie Degrowth theory, steady state economy etc? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Degrowth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steady-state_economy

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JP is first for hyper low birthrate and hyper-aging but these phenomena are sweeping all across NE Asia. No one knows what'll happen. He rants how he doesn't want to write this book but he must bcoz the professionals dont bother to discuss the issue. This is a red flag that JP society doesnt take pop decline srsly.

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Wars, econ depression, natural disasters are "normal" in the sense it can happen to any of us. A national culture that doesnt seek any solution although there's a high probability of an imminent threat is danger at another lvl. Ser you'll be appalled at the crappy responses and drama of the pandemic.

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I read once if govt cant tell ppl to have fewer kids or lower standard of living, though we're at carrying capacity, the easiest thing is to label fossil fuels = bad. https://cryptohayes.medium.com/thirst-trap-4f8b936b809e

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the malthusian view has existed for decades and it labeled pop decline = bad. the 1st essay puts for a view that pop decline is a natural and reasonable because it's the earth self correcting for sustainability.

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all adv countries except US face pop decline. 22nd century, all nations will face low birth and pop decline. it may be inevitable but def not easy to accept. The JP mind is diff from US in that JP doesnt like prepping for worst case scenarios while US values black swan thinking as demonstrated in WWII.

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He exhorts JP readers to not label those who prep for black swan as pessimists and ostracize them.

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Though pop decline is a real danger that could wipe out JP natl, local govt are not active reaching nor reaching consensus on counter plans. Cultural dynamics and their influence on decision making is real. And he may be pointing to a blindspot between top-down & bottom-up systems. A /publicgoods problem?

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JP society fears facing pessimism that leads to avoiding facing reality. Only Plan A that turns around pop decline is drawn and not Plan B, C that minimizes damage. The logic is: prepping for the worst is defeatism and defeatism leads to defeat. JP logic is not doing anything > prepping for the worst.

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To the JP psyche, reality is not created by a person but created elsewhere and happens on a person. Passive > Active. Mic drop.

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Pop decline is NOT a natural disaster but can be predicted 2 decades in adv since 95% of birth is from women 20-39 yrs old. We're taken aback by news that pop rate has hit an all time low when we could predict the decline 2 decades ago.

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JP predicted rapid pop decline in early 21st cent as early as 1980s. No one wanted to raise this issue during ATH for JP econ. Who ever thought they would lose decades. But it happened. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades

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Universities were the worst when it came to burying their head in the sand. Their tgt was clear: 18 year olds and that gave 18 years to prep. In 1993 Tatsuru first heard of pop decline at an Uni offsite. he was shocked because he realized no action was taken since 1975.

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Unis cont to increase their admission capacity, staff, budget and salary. They built up a system that would give them hell 18 years later for 18 years. No one could refute "strike when the iron's hot."

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Pre-Covid 2017, 112/660 17% higher ed institutions were in financial trouble and 21 were in danger of being bankruptcy by 2019. It must be way worse post-Covid.

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TIL you can risk hedge all you want w/o correctly accounting for the culture & society as a risk factor. pop decline is not about winning but minimizing dmg.

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3 major factors influence upcoming recession (minus Covid at this point in time): pop decline, AI, [nation-state]-first policies.

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industries he projects will soon suffer mass unemployment: finance, trad media esp natl newspaper & tv.

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interesting—he believes book publishing will be the last industry to resist an inevitable shrinking workforce. it was the earliest to face reality, and it's budget is way smaller than other media. self-publishing is readily available. books are lindy because it's existed prior to capitalism. lindy != job creation

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all biz models that presuppose a mass market will eventually disappear 🤨 i wonder if this happens at a diff rate for SEA & Africa JP projects biz tgting seniors and poor will thrive. biz tgting poor are biz models that increase in profit as poverty increases. are streaming services this way? 🧐

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finance is a moneygame that doesnt generate any value. mkts cant exist with only professional fin bros. /degens, WSB and money printer brrr in a few years is going to rock your world 🫥

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you need mkts, road, comms, common currency, lang, metrology, biz ethics in order for stable econ activities to exist. econ activites are formed on a foundation of trust. put another way, you cant have health economies w/o trust https://warpcast.com/ho/0x583892ab

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High vol of $, products & services does not mean a society is mature. He doesn't know he's throwing shade at both modern econ in developed mkts and dysfunctional frontier mkts.

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The chpt ends w/ an opinion that the last system standing will be the most mature system. It feels like a moral appeal. Done with preface and onto the next chapter!

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Chp 1 is written by a biologist, Kiyohiko Ikeda. In 30 yrs, aging population won't be a prob and only low birth and pop decline will remain. It's all about carrying capacity. If we see a pop explosion in nature, it's not carrying capacity that's increased but some factor that repressed pop has disappeared.

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Will stop and come back in a few. Thanks for reading.

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Picking up from where I left yesterday. The majority of animals are conservative when switching habitats. Mammals are the exception that tend to mass migrate when pop density rises relative to carrying capacity. most that migrate die and few that remain tend to survive.

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Unlike chimps and gorillas that stayed put, Homo Sapiens migrated out of Africa. For the Homo genus, stress was another cause for migration. Increased food supply meant an increasing pop and improvements in hunting, gathering tech quickened reaching carrying capacity. The surplus pop would hit the road again. Repeat.

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There were two choices: remain hunter-gathers and hold pop or start farming for increased pop. Societal makeup changed from a small group of skilled hunter-gatherers with static carrying capacity to larger group = more labor = increased carrying capacity through effort. Farming found a virtuous cycle.

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Farming commoditized labor and preferred higher birth rates. Additional farmhands, regardless of skill, converted to valuable labor. Hunter-gatherers and their short work time sounds like the 4 hour work week. https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/basic-income-is-already-here-its

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