Henry on Warpcast

Dan Romero pfp

What’s the value of owning the timeline topic for 24 hours in both crypto and tech?

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timdaub pfp

yeah but then you need to factor in that going forward people will take him less seriously which can be more than a million

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Dan Romero pfp

all of this is just https://i.imgur.com/VraOvck.jpg

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timdaub pfp

i don‘t get it

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Dan Romero pfp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test In this situation, people are going to reinforce their belief based on priors. :)

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timdaub pfp

yeah ok but his betting math is still silly and it seems he slipped. That’s independent of the bet. The more unlikely outcome has the better odds and he overpaid. The bet is interesting but the set up is wrong or not?

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Dan Romero pfp

You can make money permissionlessly betting against this https://polymarket.com/event/balaji-bet-btc-1m-usd-on-june-17

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timdaub pfp

Na I don‘t care about betting. I’m happy if BtC goes to 1M USD. I‘m just saying his math is weird and he hasn‘t clarified and there‘s a bunch of his fans coming to the rescue now. But I still don‘t get it

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Dan Romero pfp

To be clear: I disagree and don’t think it will happen.

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Henry pfp

@balajis.eth should make the second million dollar bet against 1,000 vaults of $100. That’s 998 more people who can play along. I’m happy to act as the counterparty to draw up the smart contract to facilitate this.

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Henry pfp

Just realized my early morning flight has messed up my math brain. I meant 100 vaults of .01 BTC and 999 more ppl who can play along.

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Henry pfp

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