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hildobby
@hildobby
NEW EPISODE IS OUT 🚨 This time all about the current state of SocialFi: friendtech, Polymarket, Fantasy & more 👥 YouTube: youtu.be/yYUoyttlwrA Spotify: sptfy.com/QU7V
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xh3b4sd ↑
@xh3b4sd.eth
Maybe I missed it, but is there a way to have a graph/query for Polymarket's efficacy? I would love to see how right or how wrong all of those markets tend to be over time. We should somehow understand if prediction markets do in fact predict an outcome, or if it is all random after all.
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hildobby
@hildobby
i assumption it's within users' interest to bet on what they believe is most likely. the market is often wrong on outcomes, but that's attributed to lack of info/uncertainty/evolving situations are there external motives that would warrant making clearly loosing bets? there's misleading others but that's costly
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hildobby
@hildobby
ETH ETF is a good example, the market was wrong during most of that market's existance, but refected the likeliness of the ETF going through pretty well at that time nonetheless, just an evolving situation
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@xh3b4sd.eth
You are right with everything you said. My question above is basically only interested in how right or how wrong Polymarket is. I think this would be great to have. I could just not figure it out myself yet and thought you may be better at putting together the query. How people interpret charts is not my "business".
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hildobby
@hildobby
how would you quantify efficacy? you need to quantify available info and afaik the best way to do that is betting market
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xh3b4sd ↑
@xh3b4sd.eth
Every market has an option with the most money bet on. That is the prediction. Every market resolves eventually based on events unfolding IRL. That is the truth. All markets represent 100%. If the prediction equals the truth it adds to the efficacy. If the prediction is wrong it does not add to the ratio above.
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