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grin
@grin
what does /SITG think of kyle's emphasis on regularity as the key to a viable prediction market? https://x.com/KyleSamani/status/1816712513817350425 TLDR: CAC costs are high so you need high LTV to justify them. that means you need deep markets in a category with lots of frequent betting options. sports betting is best and already well-served (draftkings, fanduel). others topics (even US elections) wont sustain a company long-term. wat do? cc @nick @cjh @antejon @spenser @yekim.eth @ace
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ace
@ace
read it last week sometime. 11/10 correct.
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spenser๐ชณ
@spenser
100% agree with his take. Can't build a sustainable biz if you're reliant on once every four year market event cuz you can't properly predict what your market share may be each cycle + hard to keep up team morale during down years Prediction markets need more experimentation in new market topic categories
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Integrated Kyle e/acc
@kylesamani
:)
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๐ _๐ฃ๐ _๐
@m-j-r
there's always insuring crops against weather (and the massive inefficiencies & fraud that currently exists)
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sky.โโจ-โจ
@sky
The main issue I have observed with crypto-based prediction markets is that most people who like to โbetโ donโt have crypto or arenโt familiar with it and most people who have crypto donโt like to โbetโ on prediction markets (people assume they do because they have appetite for crypto price risk, but most donโt)
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