brypto

Geopolitics

Writer, podcaster, and commentator on foreign affairs and politics. Loves history, languages, technology, and philosophy. I’m also on X at Mazmhussain.twitter

Our beloved betting markets did not do great on this one either:

I forget who casted it, but someone here made the great point that political markets don’t actually “predict” outcomes very well

They mostly just track other people’s sentiment until the end and then whiplash to converge with the outcome (mostly just arbitrage at that point)

That’s probably why liquidity is so poor

Yeah this is 100% my thinking.
They don't predict anything.

You see this during NFL games the odds just follow what happens during the game and they can completely flip.