ameripoor

Actually very interesting and nuanced
https://youtu.be/1ts5wJ6OfzA

Ironically its a clickbait-y title, but well researched opinion historically and based on what we know from Bessent et al

If we get a rash of trade deals in the next two weeks, we can clearly label your prediction wrong. I'm maybe 60% on that outcome, I agree that it's a drastic move that was taken but disagree in things that we actually have time to do it slowly "the right way" over many years (in fact we've been trying, and have been taking a lot of failures)

Either way, we will see in 2 weeks if the gambit is paying off or not on the tariff front if there's a lot of trade deals, or if China pulls a rabbit out of their hat. Make no mistake, China has been preparing for this for over a decade now, but I don't think they were fully positioned to make those moves in 2025, hence why there has been so. much. activity. coming out from them (especially on AI) since November

This is the USA's Hail Mary play, the next two decades of history will be written based on ehat happens the next two weeks

Re-industrialization would be cool, I'm all for that, but you do that by raising taxes and issuing subsidies to productive industrial facilities, preferably a few years *before* torpedoing all your trade partners.

Also the last two minutes of the video lays out perfectly why the plan won't work. It requires a lot of trust, which the US just obliterated.

We (the US) currently represent something like 24% of global trade. Our trade partners don't actually need us anymore, and expecting them to bend over backwards to keep on our good side is mind numbingly dumb. Likely caused by a myopic misperception of US exceptionalism that doesn't really exist.

My latest conspiracy theory: Trump wasn't recruited by the Russians, he was recruited by European federalists.

cognitive science, functional contextualism, tattarrattat

I don't think he was recruited by any foreign powers period, but some interesting thoughts in there about Europe reindustrializing

However that last bit about the Euro was completely egregious, pointing at a 5 day chart to make the point is hilariously daft

My latest conspiracy theory: Trump wasn't recruited by the Russians, he was recruited by European federalists. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFhddnLU9bY

A doodler and computerer. I like permissive/permissionless open source, smart contracts, p2p systems, room-scale VR, and NixOS.

shazow.net

Currently: WhatsABI

"Annexing threats" sound scary but I think the real reason he keeps doing it is to convince Europe to increase domestic defense spending to help cover europe against their domestic security issues (namely Russia) so US can focus on global security issues (namely China)

And looking at the news, we see evidence it is working

The best synthesis I've seen so far that is compatible with annexing threats:

Trump said he wants to weaken economies to make annexing easier. I buy it.

Why is Trump obsessed with annexing? I think someone convinced him that it's the most long-lasting legacy he can have as a president, to dramatically expand America's territory. I don't think he cares what gets annexed, as long as it's big. This is why he started with Canada and then pivoted to Greenland.

His first presidency was about trying to pump the market, but that's clearly ephemeral and maybe hard to do (🤪). Him wanting to go down in history for transforming the literal landscape of America fits better IMO.

Ha, I watched this video this morning too. I’m starting to get it actually. 

I’m tempted to even print off and read Scott Marins 40 page handbook.

I watched this yesterday and honestly found it fascinating and made a lot of sense. 

I'm pretty convinced it's this and/or Trump rigging the markets so his insiders can scoop up cheap assets.