politics

One of my favorite subplots of the election is if @polymarket will accurately predict the election. 

https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1843355083393913005
https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1843355960741683432

When Polymarket says your preferred candidate is winning: "Prediction markets are revolutionary! Much more accurate than polling."

When Polymarket says your preferred candidate is losing: "Prediction markets are easily gamed by partisans!"

I have been trying, unsuccessfully, to find the accuracy for the 2022 election. Will share if I find anything.

Political activist. Founder of mydemocracy.app and /advocacy. Host of the /politics channel. RCs may or may not = endorsements.

iirc, I think liquidity has been low for most elections prior.

so curious to see how accurate it will be 7 days / 3 days / 1 day before.

arguably more interesting is how many state sub-markets are accurate relative to polling.

That's what it looks like. 

As we get closer, it's not the polls but early voting numbers that have typically been the most accurate indicator for the election results. NFA, but I would look at predictions from local reporters like Jon Ralston in NV to influence my positions in polymarket. 

As political betting becomes legal and more popular, I wonder if it'll start influencing how people vote.

Interestingly enough, Kalshi just won against the CFTC for legal election markets in the US.

https://kalshi.com/

That's what it looks like. 

As we get closer, it's not the polls but early voting numbers that have typically been the most accurate indicator for the election results. NFA, but I would look at predictions from local reporters like Jon Ralston in NV to influence my positions in polymarket. 

As political betting becomes legal and more popular, I wonder if it'll start influencing how people vote. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-25/polymarket-versus-pundits-crypto-offers-prediction-competition