as many people are saying, polymarket wasn’t more accurate than polls in 2020, it got it wrong. less people used it but also less weird money trying to manipulate it

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My hunch is that 'normies' are underrepresented on Polymarket, which skews the bias towards Trump.

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If that's the case, then free money for a sophisticated trader.

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Right so if too much of a coin flip, indicates that it’s probably an accurate model of reality rn

indeed when polymarket was less accurate about the pres debate in 2020 there was money to be made but too much of a coin flip for traders imo