Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
A surprisingly non-emotional, non-partisan economic take on tariffs. No actual conclusion / prediction beyond what happens to currencies and rates. (And I'm not a big Dalio fan.) https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1907489922359132627
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
(I have no idea what happens in 6 months with the tariffs.)
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Monteluna
@monteluna
Yeah I think the logistics and operations doesn't make sense. My fundamental worry is none of this is even feasible. Dalio and others claim "tariffs" are necessary citing data from the 50s and 20s like we're the agrarian and industrial economy of the past. Today have a hyper global supply chain now where some components travel between the border *multiple times* as they are manufactured. Then these might be shipped in containers where the container company can mix multiple components from different countries. I really don't think we have border systems in place to actually account for goods that are packaged and entered into ports, and there is absolutely no way to crack every container and look at every item in the containers and charge each item correctly. Maybe if you automated and digitized almost every part of this it would work, but then you'll get the longshoreman angry again!
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samg.base.eth 🎩🍖
@samgslastlife
I think the risk is is pretty high of mass layoffs, recession, and further inflation if nothing changes for the better. But the real problem is buddy on the mound has no qualms throwing another knuckleball before we can get our bearings. Sorry but can’t trust this admin to not continue doing crazy shit.
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Arian
@arian1998
If the tariffs lead to trade wars , we could potentially see a slowdown or even a recession in the next six months in my opinion . The Federal Reserve might keep interest rates low or cut them further to support economic activity, but it will depend on inflation trends and overall economic performance. I think high inflation will tie the Federal Reserve's hands to reach their goals
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atown
@atown
I read this one this morning and really appreciated the matter of fact, objective breakdown without pushing and bias or prejudice
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