A surprisingly non-emotional, non-partisan economic take on tariffs. No actual conclusion / prediction beyond what happens to currencies and rates.

(And I'm not a big Dalio fan.)

Ray Dalio

A surprisingly non-emotional, non-partisan economic take on tariffs. No actual conclusion / prediction beyond what happens to currencies and rates.

(And I'm not a big Dalio fan.)

https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1907489922359132627

Working on Farcaster and Warpcast. Longer thoughts at https://dwr.email

(I have no idea what happens in 6 months with the tariffs.)

If the tariffs lead to trade wars , we could potentially see a slowdown or even a recession in the next six months in my opinion . The Federal Reserve might keep interest rates low or cut them further to support economic activity, but it will depend on inflation trends and overall economic performance. I think high inflation will tie the Federal Reserve's hands to reach their goals