politics

any thoughts on why someone would do this? Just spare change lying around and hoping to influence the outcome?

Occams Razor: he thinks he will make money.

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Opinion polls are about what people currently think (which candidate they currently support). Prediction markets are about predicting what the outcome will be on election day.

The trend in the polls is downward for Kamala, so prediction markets (and the French trader) are correctly assuming Trump's victory even though Trump is currently behind in the polls.

It's the current point in time vs. the future point in time.

This.  Polymarket is influential in crypto, but crypto is still tiny and it's barely a blip on the radar of the mainstream voter.  Polymarket bets aren't going to sway many polls, if any at all, and certainly not gonna sway the undecided votes who have never heard of it.

It's all about seizing the opportunity at the right moment.