crypto

Curious to see where daily volume and open interest are in a month.

I'm quite bullish on prediction markets and Polymarket, but unclear what the next winning adjacency is beyond presidential elections.

I suspect the significant increase in awareness and app installs will be a useful for tool for running the next set of experiments.

https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket

they need to approach it as an expanded futures market - what events do people want to hedge? some of those markets could target consumers, some could target professionals in a small market but with deep pockets and a lot at stake

I'd love to see a suite of predictions around what people expect Trump's administration will do, especially the things people fear most.

I like pleasure spiked with blockchain and music is my aeroplane. It's my aeroplane. /pizzadao underboss and /pixelwooks co-lead. Featured in "Number Go Up" 📖

Unless Polymarket acquires a license in the US. Will be interesting!

Kalshi is going to steal Polymarket's thunder cause people don't need to use a VPN

Conceptual florist & Skateboarder, Landscaper at /middle-mgmt
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🌊 🌻

Challenge will be there are a lot of legal options with much more convenient payment rails.

The Super Bowl or any major sporting event. Polymarket during the next olympics will probably go wild. Oscars, Emmys, Grammys....

Consumer Crypto

This is a perfect example of a terrible business idea but a good consumer idea.

I'm sure consumers are going to love this app. 

They will engage and contribute daily, until the election. 

Once the election is gone, it will be tough for @polymarket to convert those users into a regular DAU.

Instead, they could have created a highlighted section on Polymarket for Election (which I believe they do). 

They could use this traction to educate the users about their other markets and get them to hooked.

IMO, they are missing out on the biggest opportunity of lifetime.

This is the same mistake most crypto consumer apps are making. 

They get traction for a month or two and most of it fades away. 

I'm trying to implement some of the ideas with the movie game I'm creating.

I'll keep everyone posted on the lessons.

As predicted 

https://warpcast.com/chinmay.eth/0x14cd49ec

Let it be a lesson for the founders to fix the leaky bucket ASAP.

They cast their net wide and like you’re saying, I think they just need to scale now. Each category is very active and sports gambling is a mega niche. That chart is skewed visually because of how much new volume this brought comparative to anything prior.

predictions for things that will affect the stock market could be a catalyst, would be interesting to see equal volume on a market as a stock for instance. could make meme stonks obsolete

commercials in the Super Bowl could be interesting cultural event if done right

big tv events—will ____get married, die, etc. have to be universal big events for the cultural event you are talking about—-Ross and Rachel, etc.

all online sports markets are a good start

all online sports markets are a good start

https://www.statista.com/outlook/amo/online-gambling/online-sports-betting/worldwide

Valid - my normie friends since election have been sending me stuff like this tho so there’s a glimmer of hope (for the platform)

I assume it will mostly be used for sports betting until the next major election.

Probably a celebrity endorsement or some BS

Today, prediction markets are just one example of a much larger and incredibly powerful category, with the potential to create better implementations of social media, science, news, governance, and other fields. Let's call this trend "info finance," as @vitalik.eth suggests.

https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/11/09/infofinance.html

Maybe you would like to see what @vitalik.eth has to say about "info finance" as the evolution of prediction markets

Maybe you would like to see what @vitalik.eth has to say about "info finance" as the evolution of prediction markets https://warpcast.com/joobid.eth/0x041e6cc2

For awareness & financial motives to take notice, It would be popular for markets on climate change & weather events. How high will the global CO2 level go in 2024? (Currently, 419.3 parts per million (ppm) 2023 record.) We require 350ppm for a livable planet 🌍 🔥 ♻️. 5% of the bet to go to climate mitigation!