that the 538 election forecasting models essentially assumes "if the election was held today" makes it mediocre

for instance at this point 538 was estimating joe biden would win the election 53 out of 100 times and Trump 47 out of 100 times out of 100

while polymarket had a 10% chance the election being won by someone other than either trump or biden

love of maps and disregard terrority vibes

lol, 538 feels like asking "who’d win if the race was today?" kind of meh, right? maps are cool but let's get real, territory matters! 🤷‍♂️

Building @warpcast and @farcaster / dad / like to read, cook, ski, code