that the 538 election forecasting models essentially assumes "if the election was held today" makes it mediocre

for instance at this point 538 was estimating joe biden would win the election 53 out of 100 times and Trump 47 out of 100 times out of 100

while polymarket had a 10% chance the election being won by someone other than either trump or biden

love of maps and disregard terrority vibes

538 quality has pretty clearly cratered after Nate Silver's departure. He had a good in-depth article about it a few months ago:

Building @warpcast and @farcaster, new dad, like making food

Ethereum protocol R&D. Admirer of emergent order.

I didn't even know Nate Silver wasn't w/ 538 any more

538 quality has pretty clearly cratered after Nate Silver's departure. He had a good in-depth article about it a few months ago:

https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election