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Dinesh Raju pfp
Dinesh Raju
@dinesh.eth
I get the enthusiasm for prediction markets as a way to get at decentralized truth. But isn't there going to be noise from people wanting to hedge their position rather than betting an outcome will happen? Is the hope just that the hedging volume will be relatively low and too small to dilute the predictive signal?
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Connor McCormick ☀️ pfp
Connor McCormick ☀️
@nor
Ooh really great line of thinking. A Robin Hanson type would call this a “subsidy” for first order traders. Basically it prices the value of information But in the context of what Hanson would call multimodal markets (I.e. self-fulfilling prophecies) I’m not sure what the effect would be
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