Dinesh Raju

@dinesh.eth

76 Following

281 Followers

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"The discount rate is the foundation of all valuation & markets. If my discount rate is being warped by price insensitive buyers like the Federal Reserve with QE, it's really hard to derive signal. If I can't even get the discount rate right how can I get any other valuation right?" https://youtu.be/q8QhgE5icAQ?t=853

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Spicy take from Paul Tudor Jones: "Elon Musk is probably one of the greatest human contributors since Einstein. But here's a guy who looks 1000 years in the future with space travel, but his governance goes actually back a thousand years. It's very tribal. It's all for me, you work for me, you do what I tell you."

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a minimum viable plan for Fighting Chance https://dinesh.eth.limo/notes/plan-for-fighting-chance/ long-term project details subject to change will fill in the blanks as we go along

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Financial nihilism and the crack-up boom https://warpcast.com/dinesh.eth/0xce6e03cf

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Demetri Kofinas: In financial nihilism, capital allocation gets uncoupled from the needs of the underlying economy. This captures what we've been experiencing: the economy is increasingly not working for people even though the stock market is at all-time highs. https://youtu.be/G6HESVcM4Ic?t=258

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This convo I had with @visakanv almost 2 years ago still gets referenced https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZO4xO45rCY

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Excited to help fund SkillGarh, a training camp for outlier rural kids in India. Many of these kids don't grow up with the opportunity to aim high & reach for their ambition. SkillGarh wants to support & inspire them to change their trajectory

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"When I go out & talk to people at rallies, the thing I find least appealing is certainty. People have no sense of there being a gray area or being unsure of how something should play out. It doesn't mean you shouldn't be strong in your convictions, but I think you need to leave space to be wrong and to be curious.

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One lens to view the memecoin frenzy: In the late 18th century, France was heavily indebted and they solved it with money printing. At first, the money printing made everyone happy since everyone felt richer. But when did it over and over again, it didn't have the same impact and just caused inflation.

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TIL Singapore has more tanks than the UK The UK has 10X the population, 300X the area and is the world's 6th largest defense spender Lee Kuan Yew: Big fish eat small fish; small fish eat shrimp. Singapore must be a poisonous shrimp in order to survive

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Absolutely wild to me that formal study of cognitive biases started only 50 years ago So much of human experience is downstream of our biases. We teach kids years of math & english, but don’t say anything about the defects that come with their headsets We’ll look back at these times as our dark ages

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Sad to hear of Daniel Kahneman's passing Jonas Salk, creator of the polio vaccine once said, "Our greatest responsibility is to be good ancestors" Kahneman will be remembered as a good ancestor To honor him would be to spread his ideas far & wide so that we all make better decisions

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With US debt to gdp ratio making new records, you might be wondering when politicians start worrying. From Eric Leeper (advisor to the fed & central banks): When interest payments on the debt start to chew up a large fraction of federal spending, that's when it really bites the politicians & they pay attention.

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Had to explain Kahneman's System 1 & 2 to my nephew to help him process some advice. Here’s the analogy I used. Each of us is wearing a VR headset like the Apple Vision Pro. This is our System 1. The headset has cameras that look out at the world & an inner display.

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I hope FC becomes a place that cares about being a network for cultural production with highly divergent norms across channels, communities & clients as much as it cares about getting frames right https://warpcast.com/proxystudio.eth/0x99c5ee7d a social network isn't the s/w product, it's about the people in it

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An extreme form of this is the current law on the books Legislative statutes elicit emotions, assume knowledge, and enshrine a world-view Laws are words just like tweets are https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1766509149297189274

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We take for granted that price measures value, but price just measures attention. With the skillful use of modern media, attention can be herded away from value for long enough to trick the audience. Price can be used as evidence to show there's value when there is none. This has some non-obvious implications.

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https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1766509149297189274

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(from Thinking Fast & Slow) "Availability" : How easily an event or fact comes to mind and becomes a focus of your attention. Memories that trigger an emotional reaction have higher availability. "Availability Heuristic" : Our tendency to use information that comes to mind quickly & easily when making decisions.

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