no object take on tariffs and trump admin beyond as predicted seems like constant fumbling

but unprovable meta take: seems like the economy / US debt / perceived global power were all fake and due for a reset

(un)intentionally bringing it about ourselves is probably less painful than running into an external breaking point

Building @warpcast and @farcaster / dad / like to read, cook, ski, code

- impose tariffs that lead to massive inflation
- print print print to offset and pay off our debt with cheap cash
- re-shore some critical capabilities like chip manufacturing
- pendulum swings back, globalists come back into power, renegotiate trade deals on better terms
- bank on being the reserve currency and seemingly unstoppable tech industry to backstop us through it

🇧🇷🇺🇸 - Book: Making Things Think: https://holloway.com/mtt .Investor in Wander, Carry, Footprint, Merkle Manufactory (Farcaster), Dynamic, Paragraph

@androidsixteen.eth @giu hopium or copium?

America

A model for the USA for the next ~10 years: a live player without moral scruples

Upside is that it can dynamically respond to challenges like an overblown budget or shifting world powers. Downside is that it will fail to honor commitments and abide by rules (even those it may previously have set up itself)

Eg. Throwing Europe under the bus and consolidating regional powers under its umbrella while front-running dead players as the current order collapses

Short-term, it’s practical and may stave off more existential risks like insolvency or weakening military prowess

Long-term, it gives up the hope of being the “city upon a hill”. Trust is earned slowly and eroded quickly

The USA may remain a leader in many things — entrepreneurship, dynamism, military might, pure resource abundance, etc.

But it can no longer be the indispensable nation, because it is giving up that story proactively before others can. Whether you mourn this is dependent on how you view it — a coming of age, or paradise lost

Agree on self-rug being better than waiting to be empire rugged. I keep coming back to this though: https://warpcast.com/androidsixteen.eth/0xa655e6d8

Moral legitimacy loss can't be reversed, but probably a futile goal and already eroded anyway (War on Terror was the 3rd strike after Vietnam and Gulf War)

Also re: the economics, it's helpful to think of importing stuff as exporting dollars. If other countries don't have enough dollars to buy US debt, the Fed will need to print harder, which is going to lead to more problems and eventually cause the dollar to lose reserve asset status

So the question is, can we get the house in order before the "exorbitant privilege" ends?