Justin Wise

@crackingcrypto

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@crackingcrypto

That's all folks! If you found value, please like, recast, and comment! Subscribe to the Crypto Alpha Report to receive these insights in your inbox daily. Data-driven research to keep you armed and dangerous. https://academy.crackingcryptocurrency.com/newsletters/crypto-alpha-report/subscribe Enjoy today's Crypto Market Update: https://crackingcryptocurrency.com/learn/news-and-insights/crypto-market-update-january-10-2025

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@crackingcrypto

Secondly, the long-term holder distribution of Bitcoin seems to have peaked and is currently declining - reaching peaks we’ve seen in previous cycles. In the 2017 market cycle, this metric peaked in August of 2017, when we saw a pullback in Bitcoin’s price from $4,000 to $3,600 - then we continued to rally to $19,000.

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@crackingcrypto

In 2021, this metric peaked in January, which saw Bitcoin’s price pullback from $40,000 to $32,000 - we then rallied to $63,000. In 2024, this metric peaked on Dec. 10th, which has seen Bitcoin’s price pullback from $105,000 to $90,000 - we then rallied to ???,??? in 2025. Here’s to a frothy future!

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@crackingcrypto

However, on the positive side, we analyze how this metric has helped predict Bitcoin’s price movements, whether bullish or bearish. We notice that since 2019, prolonged periods of Bitcoin Balance declining have led to bullish price action, and it’s only once the Balance on Exchanges begins to rise again that it calls the Euphoria Phase of the Market Cycle - when prices increase rapidly.

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@crackingcrypto

Let’s re-iterate a powerful metric: Bitcoin Balance on Exchanges. Currently, in January 2025, we have the lowest balance of Bitcoin on exchanges we’ve seen since January of 2019 - which was the bottom of the 2018/19 Bear Market.

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@crackingcrypto

Liquidity and the order books are thin when the Exchange Balance is very low. This means price is subject not only to wild price swings (which is why being careful with leverage here is crucial) but also sets up price for rapid price appreciation if a surge of fresh buying comes in. However, the knife cuts both ways, as it also means less buy-side liquidity to absorb market sell orders.

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@crackingcrypto

Happy Friday, friends! Is the Bull Market over or on the verge of epic continuation? Join us for Fundamentals Friday as we dive deep into the evidence and find what side of the market we should be on. 🧵

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@crackingcrypto

Agreed, don't rule out a fake out to 91 or 90,000. When price ranges, Bitcoin hunts stops.

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@crackingcrypto

Depends on your time frame. Honestly, I've lost a lot of luster for ethereum over the years, very disappointing development and I don't support their transition to proof of steak. But that's on the time frame of years. If the cycle continues, of course ethereum's going to go up. Plus, BlackRock is going to be heavily promoting their ethereum ETF this upcoming year.

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@crackingcrypto

The student has become the master. 🎄

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@crackingcrypto

Thank you, I'm glad you found value. And it's Justin. :)

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@crackingcrypto

Thank you my friend! :)

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@crackingcrypto

You're very welcome.

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@crackingcrypto

Today's Crypto Market Update is out! https://crackingcryptocurrency.com/learn/news-and-insights/crypto-market-update-january-08-2025

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@crackingcrypto

Make this the year of buckling down, concentrating your efforts, and making this a serious occupation, not just a moonshot hobby. Onwards and upwards, friends! If you found value, please like, comment, and recast! :)

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@crackingcrypto

It’s the same with trading and investing. Whether you want to full portfolio high conviction plays 1-2 times per year or risk 2% taking 2-3 trades per week, whatever your strategy or edge is, the market will not reward you if you don’t put the time in.

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@crackingcrypto

If you want to start playing guitar, you won’t be so great in the beginning. But one hour of practice a day and after a few months, you won’t be so terrible. After two years, you’ll be jamming and the center of joy for the campsite (assuming your singing voice isn’t awful).

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@crackingcrypto

To be a successful trader, you must put in the time every day. In the beginning stages, it will be about learning and backtesting. You need to carve out at least 1-2 hours per day to do it. You will have to sacrifice other things you want to do. But if you want this, you must make time to become good at it. That will only come with consistently putting in the time.

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@crackingcrypto

There’s no such thing as overnight success (at least long-lasting). Consistent results come from consistent inputs. You have to put in the work to be successful. I don’t find a trade every day, hell, most days. But the fact that I put in the time in front of my computer every day means that when an opportunity does come in front of me, I’m prepared to act on it with conviction.

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