Justin Wise on Warpcast

Justin Wise pfp

@crackingcrypto

Happy Tuesday, friends! Fancy yourself a trader do you? In today’s episode, let’s face some hard facts and distinguish between a true trader (the 1%) and the gambler (the 99%). Grab a box of tissues, because this one might sting.

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Justin Wise pfp

@crackingcrypto

Ah, the trader. What a glorious lifestyle. From the luxury of an Adirondack chair on a cozy beach, sipping Mai Tai’s, scalping the one-minute chart, and reeling in a few grand a day. Is this what you initially pictured when you started trading?

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Justin Wise pfp

@crackingcrypto

Unfortunately, the sad reality is that this is mostly a pipe dream. It’s a lie that’s sold over and over again that appeals to our innate desire to live ‘the good life.’ But, as humans, we gobble this fantasy up and throw our hard-earned capital into the markets - often to disastrous effect.

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Justin Wise pfp

@crackingcrypto

While it’s not impossible to live this dream, the reality is that most of us focus on the end goal, the Mai Tai and the pretty senoritas, and not the process that achieves the end goal. Backtesting? Boooooring! Strategy creation? Pssh, why do that when all I have to do is find the right memecoin, bet big, and retire?

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Justin Wise pfp

@crackingcrypto

For every successful story you hear of a meme coin trade gone right, a few thousand traders could show you a -99% loss. Memecoin trading is the new lottery. You do know the odds of hitting the lottery, don’t you?

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Justin Wise pfp

@crackingcrypto

All right, as if that wasn’t enough fluff, let’s cut to the chase. If you don’t know the statistical odds of your ability to win or lose a trade, you’re not a trader; you’re a gambler. “But I follow price action, bro…” No, stop that; you’re a gambler. I’ve met a handful of price action traders with statistics, and kudos to them. But 99/100 “price action traders” are just gamblers. Confirmation bias, seeing what they want to see, and survivor bias - that’s the cocktail of “smart money concepts.” Hey, if you can backtest it, more power to you. But most of you can’t and won’t.

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Justin Wise pfp

@crackingcrypto

Building a strategy isn’t sexy, but it’s the difference between sitting down in front of the charts every day and knowing (roughly) how you will do, and sitting down in front of the charts just praying that today will be your lucky day.

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