Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
Polymarket seems quietly underrated. I love its "shill your bag" feature.
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CBobRobison
@cr
Prediction markets and other futatchy adjacent experiments really get put on the back burner each bull market cycle. ICOs, DeFi, and NFTs all did such an incredible job keeping everyone's attention. I do get excited during bear markets tho. I'm always hoping the next wave will give Polymarket & others their breakout.
2 replies
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PhiMarHal
@phimarhal
Prediction markets always suffer to attract liquidity due to skill floor and payout ceiling. In comparison, any fool can gamble on tokens and get lucky. Seems like a hard problem to solve.
2 replies
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CBobRobison
@cr
There's also the misalignment of incentives because liquidity can impact outcomes If you want to manifest a certain outcome, you should bet against it Eg, I want Assange free. Instead of donating to a legal fund, I bet he won't be freed. Now a politician can use their influence to bet against me, free him, get paid
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CBobRobison
@cr
I actually think if a prediction market openly branded itself more in this way, it could carve a unique niche to give PMs real momentum. It would create a net positive game theory Bet to manifest. If A happens, you paid for something you wanted. If A !happen, you win money (+ can bet again increasing probability of A)
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CBobRobison
@cr
"Any fool" could simply buy a "Free Assange Coin" ($FAC) On the backend, this token would just be using user liquidity in a PM to repeatedly bet that Assange isn't freed. As long as he isn't freed, the token is steadily increasing in value (as long as people bet he will be freed) Once he's free, poof, $FAC disappears
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