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I broadly agree with everything you said.
> at a certain point people won't be able to continuously keep supporting in this way without promise of an upside
I'd caveat that I think other things beyond patronage/speculation could also motivate. Eg, status (someone reading your name during a Twitch donation), utility (paying to access a Substack paywall), etc. That being said, I think patronage/speculation, at least in the context of coins or Paragraph, are primary motivators.
> 50% patronage and 50% speculation
I think 50/50 would be very challenging to hit. I agree with your premise that it'd nearly always lean one way or another. For me, I support some creators because I like them and want them to succeed, but I support others due to primarily financial interest, so anecdotally it fluctuates.
By strike a balance, I mean not alienate one group or the other. For example, if we designed a UX like this, speculators would love it but patrons would likely not! https://warpcast.com/colin/0x27c02497 0 reply
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