Network States

Internet 📈
Indians 📈
China 📈
DC 📉

Those are the four forces on the world as I see them. The Internet, Indians, and China are rising. DC is falling. And America is split between the American Network (rising with the Internet) and the American State (falling with DC).

What factors make you believe the american state is falling?

It’s bankrupt.

The state is making $2-4T a year with $175T in debt. So it’s not actually a rich country. It’s like a guy playing fake rich by maxing out his credit cards.

Default is coming.

BDFL of Quilibrium, Eng @ Farcaster, ex-Coinbase, always opinionated, never hydrated

/quilibrium

It’s bankrupt.

The state is making $2-4T a year with $175T in debt. So it’s not actually a rich country. It’s like a guy playing fake rich by maxing out his credit cards.

Default is coming.
https://open.substack.com/pub/balajis/p/americas-175-trillion-problem?r=2974h&utm_medium=ios

What would you consider the solution to pivot out of this? Assuming it is inevitable that america enters a default crisis, if you had control of the levers of action, what would be the next move?

Would love to see his answer here. He’s been great as the alarmist but I haven’t seen him propose much in the way of all the problems. 

I also directionally agree with the “bankrupt” “collapse” argument but what are avenues of approach ?

Do we just leave everyone else behind? 

Thanks for asking the hard Q Cassie!

The greatest strength comes from knowing your own weakness.

My overarching thesis is that history is running in reverse. So the countries that had a great 20th century are on track for a tough 21st, and vice versa.

For example: China, Russia, India, Eastern Europe were crushed by socialism. Now they are capitalist and unified to varying degrees. So their overall trajectory is up.

Meanwhile, Woke America and Western Europe were once capitalist and unified. But now they’re woke with broken borders and bankrupt states. So their overall trajectory is down.

Like Dalio and Elon, I believe the coming sovereign debt crisis will end 500 years of Western dominance (and also take down Japan). Failing states will get extremely nasty.

I think China rises. I think the Internet succeeds the West, and opposes China. I also think Bitcoin Republicans can maybe turn Florida into a Taiwan equivalent, where capitalists take refuge.

But most aren’t ready to hear this. They still think the postwar order will last.

Wrote an answer below.

The problem is most Westerners don’t viscerally understand how tragic the fate of the East was in the last century.

The bad guys did win, for generations. Communism crushed billions of lives. There were mass wealth seizures and mass murders. And of course communism posed as good, as being for the workers and peasants. But it was really just for the Communist Party.

Right now in the West we have a woke ideology that poses as good. As being for women and minorities. But it’s really just for the Democrat Party. And the violence or BLM, antifa, Hamas is just a preview of what is to come.

Drug addicts will squat in your house. Assets will be seized. Homes burned. Roads blocked. Propaganda will blot out the skies. Already happening, but it’ll escalate.

Blue states in particular are bankrupt. Red states may survive if they break away in time. This is just like what the East suffered last century.

cc @les @shoni.eth @brixbounty

co-founder, terminally onchain family-man, building products on frontier solutions w frontier people.
/grey
lesgreys.com

Growing veggies for the fine folks of Southeastern Massachusetts, w/ a focus on nutrient quality. Always interested in the evolution of digital payments.  🎩 

I see a prediction of outcome, but I'm asking if you were in the position to make the changes you feel are needed to pivot out of the situation, what would you do? Or do you simply believe there is no solution at all, it will simply happen with no possible intervention due to momentum?

Wrote an answer below.

The problem is most Westerners don’t viscerally understand how tragic the fate of the East was in the last century.

The bad guys did win, for generations. Communism crushed billions of lives. There were mass wealth seizures and mass murders. And of course communism posed as good, as being for the workers and peasants. But it was really just for the Communist Party.

Right now in the West we have a woke ideology that poses as good. As being for women and minorities. But it’s really just for the Democrat Party. And the violence or BLM, antifa, Hamas is just a preview of what is to come.

Drug addicts will squat in your house. Assets will be seized. Homes burned. Roads blocked. Propaganda will blot out the skies. Already happening, but it’ll escalate.

Blue states in particular are bankrupt. Red states may survive if they break away in time. This is just like what the East suffered last century.

cc @les @shoni.eth @brixbounty 
https://warpcast.com/balajis.eth/0x9b0d0c07

seems like abandon ship and try again tbf

There is a lot of truth to the financial troubles… and we’ve managed to kick the fan down the road further than I ever thought possible.

Yet we also have a tremendous natural resource base and human capacity.  Our fiscal debts might not tether our future growth as much as it would seem

Enter Mint the Coin conversation and MMT folks …

Immigration will be a key element to the demographic reality of an aging population.

Going to see a lot of conversations around wealth taxes over the next decade