Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Zeihan bad takes recently: - "This is the last iPhone (for 4-5 years)" - "Tesla is going down another 90%" On the Tesla point, may be true, but his consistent weak spot is he dismisses Silicon Valley-driven technology breakthroughs. And even in his physical world analysis of defense, underrates SpaceX and Anduril.
13 replies
1 recast
11 reactions
Matthew
@matthew
given that, do you feel any gell-man amnesia w.r.t. zeihan?
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
yes, but I find his points supported by googleable data to be much easier to verify. he's strongest on demographics, supply chains. weakest on technology (and the associated productivity). another frame: if he was so good at economic forecasting, he'd be a hedge fund manager not a professional powerpointer :)
1 reply
0 recast
4 reactions
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
also, his pov is losing alpha quickly since he's less contrarian than he used to be. all that said, I think he's convinced me that Europe as a thing isn't going to exist much longer and that Germany (sans a radical shift on immigration) is going to have a very hard time surviving as a power
4 replies
0 recast
0 reaction
Bravo Johnson
@bravojohnson
Reports of the death of Europe have outlasted Milton Friedman 1990s predictions of the death of Europe. I have never understood the yearly goalpost shifting. The same legal entities remain more or less untouched since Westphalia
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Bravo Johnson
@bravojohnson
Unless it’s Keynes for me, Friedman for thee type misdirection
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
