politics

Early voting totals, polls and markets seem to indicate either GOP landslide—or an Election Day collapse (because so many voted early, some GOP voters stay home because of perceived lead, strong turn out from Dems, indpts and dual hate break for Harris).

Kalshi at $100M in volume negating “Americans can’t bet” argument. Robinhood launching trading will also add liquidity. Maybe some big trader will take EV+ Kamala 3x bet in size over the weekend.

The main thing I've learned from prediction markets (lifetime P&L roughly one used Mazda Miata, so don't take me too seriously) is that "buy an outcome based on available information and wait for it to happen" is pretty much always a bad trade. "Buy what is mispriced today" is much better. (not prediction advice)

I'm eth newbie..just learning
(working on @farcaster)

terminally.online

They are often mispriced, in particular by:
Cults of personality
"Buy Yes" bias
Longshot bias
Structural limits and liquidity
Herding and mood affiliation

That doesn't mean they're wrong, it means you can make money making them right.

Well, considering Americans need to use a VPN to participate and they are the ones most informed on this issue, makes the whole thing pretty sus imho. It’s gambling.